Aerodrome Finance (AERO) Price Prediction

Deep Dive

1. Emissions Governance (Mixed Impact)

Overview:
Aerodrome enters "Aero Fed" phase in late October 2025, where veAERO holders will vote weekly to adjust emissions (-0.01% to +0.01% of total supply). This replaces the current 1% weekly decay.

What this means:
Successful supply management could create scarcity if demand holds – but contentious votes might increase volatility. The protocol’s rebase mechanism partially offsets dilution for long-term lockers.

2. Base Ecosystem Expansion (Bullish Impact)

Overview:
AERO processes 55% of Base’s $1.17B daily DEX volume (AerodromeFi, Aug 2025). Coinbase’s direct app integration since August 2025 exposes AERO to 100M+ potential users.

What this means:
Network effects strengthen as more projects launch on Base – Aerodrome’s position as default liquidity layer could drive sustained fee growth (up 300% YTD to $21M weekly).

3. veAERO Lockup Trends (Bullish Impact)

Overview:
902M AERO (57% of circulating supply) remains locked in 4-year veNFTs. Recent epochs show net locking exceeding emissions by 2M tokens weekly (AerodromeFi, Sept 2025).

What this means:
Reduced sell pressure from loyal stakeholders – though unlocks from early adopters (2023 lockers become eligible in 2027) pose long-term risks.

Conclusion

AERO’s $1.18 price reflects optimism about Base’s growth and disciplined tokenomics, but faces inflection points with emissions governance and profit-taking near $1.60 resistance. Will protocol revenues ($8M weekly) outpace emission-driven inflation post-Fed transition? Monitor veAERO lock rates and Base’s TVL growth through Q4.