Question 1

Why is ALCX’s price up today? (24/09/2025)

Accepted Answer

## TLDR  
Alchemix (ALCX) rose 2.01% over the past 24h, diverging from its 7-day (-8.81%) and 30-day (-18.93%) downtrends. Here are the main factors:

1. **V3 Anticipation (Bullish)** – Upcoming protocol upgrades fuel speculation.  
2. **Technical Rebound Signals (Mixed)** – Oversold RSI and moving average convergence suggest short-term recovery potential.  
3. **Market Sentiment Shift (Neutral)** – Altcoin season index at 71 hints at renewed risk appetite.

---

## Deep Dive

### 1. V3 Upgrade Speculation (Bullish Impact)  
**Overview:** Alchemix’s [August 5 announcement](https://x.com/AlchemixFi/status/1952720241836150908) of its v3 launch – featuring 90% loan-to-value ratios and a Meta-Yield Token – has reignited interest. The upgrade aims to optimize self-repaying loans and stabilize alUSD/alETH pegs, with audits and testnets nearing completion.

**What this means:** Major protocol updates often drive speculative buying, especially in DeFi projects. The reduced selling pressure from high FDV alignment (circulating supply ≈ 95% of total) amplifies the impact of positive news.

**What to look out for:** Confirmation of v3’s mainnet launch date and audit results.

---

### 2. Technical Rebound Signals (Mixed Impact)  
**Overview:** ALCX’s 7-day SMA ($8.40) recently crossed above its 25-day SMA ($7.63), a bullish indicator. The RSI-14 (35.65) rebounded from oversold territory (<30), while the price ($8.59) tests the 99-day SMA resistance at $8.85.

**What this means:** Traders may interpret these signals as a short-term reversal opportunity. However, the MACD histogram remains negative (-0.111), reflecting lingering bearish momentum. A close above $8.85 could trigger further upside.

---

### 3. Altcoin Market Sentiment (Neutral Impact)  
**Overview:** The broader crypto Fear & Greed Index sits at 39 (“Fear”), but the Altcoin Season Index (71) suggests capital rotation into smaller caps. ALCX’s 24h volume ($14.3M) rose 67% despite a 16.7% drop in overall crypto spot volumes.

**What this means:** ALCX is outperforming during a risk-neutral market phase, though thin liquidity (turnover ratio 0.672) increases volatility risk.

---

## Conclusion  
ALCX’s rebound appears driven by technical factors and optimism around its v3 upgrade, though macro uncertainty and low liquidity warrant caution.

**Key watch:** Can ALCX sustain momentum above the 99-day SMA ($8.85), or will delisting-related sell pressure from June 2025 resurface?

Question 2

Why is ALCX’s price down today? (23/09/2025)

Accepted Answer

## TLDR  
Alchemix (ALCX) fell 4.71% in the past 24h, underperforming the broader crypto market (-2.39%). Key drivers include technical weakness, lingering exchange delisting impacts, and mixed sentiment around platform upgrades.

1. **Technical Breakdown** – Price fell below critical support levels with RSI signaling oversold conditions.  
2. **Exchange Delistings** – Reduced liquidity from June’s OKX/CoinDCX removals continues to pressure trading.  
3. **V3 Launch Speculation** – Post-upgrade volatility as traders reassess Alchemix’s DeFi positioning.

## Deep Dive  
### 1. Technical Breakdown (Bearish Impact)  
**Overview:** ALCX broke below its 30-day SMA ($9.67) and Fibonacci 23.6% retracement ($10.41), accelerating selling. The RSI7 hit 22.03 (deeply oversold), while the MACD histogram (-0.089) confirmed bearish momentum.

**What this means:** Breakdowns below moving averages often trigger algorithmic selling. With volume down 10.3% to $17.6M, weak liquidity amplified the drop. The next support is the swing low of $8.37 – a breach could extend losses.

**What to watch:** Whether the price stabilizes above $8.37 or tests the 200-day EMA ($10.59) as resistance.

### 2. Exchange Delistings (Bearish Impact)  
**Overview:** ALCX was delisted from OKX and CoinDCX in June 2025, removing key liquidity pools. While the initial price impact was muted, reduced exchange access has likely contributed to thinner order books over time.

**What this means:** Fewer trading venues increase slippage risks, deterring larger traders. The 24h turnover ratio of 0.848 confirms moderate liquidity stress. Historical data shows delisted tokens underperform for months post-removal.

### 3. V3 Launch Speculation (Mixed Impact)  
**Overview:** Alchemix launched V3 on 5 August 2025, introducing Meta-Yield Tokens and improved peg stability. While initially bullish, the upgrade failed to sustain momentum as TVL growth slowed post-launch.

**What this means:** Traders may be taking profits after the 12.48% 90-day rally, questioning whether V3 can meaningfully boost protocol revenue beyond its Q1 2025 $1M milestone.

## Conclusion  
ALCX’s drop reflects technical triggers amplified by structural liquidity challenges and profit-taking after recent upgrades. While oversold conditions could invite a bounce, the lack of major exchange support and delayed V3 traction pose headwinds.

**Key watch:** Can ALCX hold $8.37 support, and will TVL rebound post-V3 audits? Monitor the [Alchemix DAO’s budget proposal](https://x.com/AlchemixFi/status/1957458721073955241) for clues on development momentum.

Latest Alchemix (ALCX) Price Analysis

Why is ALCX’s price up today? (24/09/2025)

TLDR

Deep Dive

1. V3 Upgrade Speculation (Bullish Impact)

2. Technical Rebound Signals (Mixed Impact)

3. Altcoin Market Sentiment (Neutral Impact)

Conclusion

Why is ALCX’s price down today? (23/09/2025)

TLDR

Deep Dive

1. Technical Breakdown (Bearish Impact)

2. Exchange Delistings (Bearish Impact)

3. V3 Launch Speculation (Mixed Impact)

Conclusion