Latest Alpaca Finance (ALPACA) Price Analysis

Deep Dive

1. Technical Rebound (Mixed Impact)

Overview: ALPACA’s 24h gain follows oversold signals. The 1h RSI dipped to 28.42 on July 24 (CoinMarketCap), near the “oversold” threshold (30), prompting a minor bounce. The price also hovered near its 30-day low ($0.015996), a key Fibonacci support level.

What this means: Traders often interpret oversold RSI as a contrarian buy signal, especially in low-liquidity assets like ALPACA. However, the MACD histogram (-0.000019) and 200-day SMA ($0.066) still indicate long-term bearish momentum.

What to watch: A sustained break above the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement ($0.0232) could signal further upside, but resistance at the 7-day SMA ($0.0173) remains critical.

2. Altcoin Sentiment Shift (Neutral Impact)

Overview: The crypto market’s Altcoin Season Index rose to 72 (+44% monthly), suggesting capital rotation into riskier assets. ALPACA’s 24h volume ($1.02M) rose 13.7% despite its -57.95% 60-day decline.

What this means: ALPACA’s micro-cap ($2.52M) makes it hypersensitive to shifts in altcoin sentiment. However, its fundamentals—delistings (Binance in May, INDODAX in August) and protocol shutdown—limit sustainable demand.

Conclusion

ALPACA’s minor rebound likely stems from oversold technicals and fleeting altcoin optimism, not organic demand. With the project defunct and liquidity dwindling, rallies remain fragile.

Key watch: Can ALPACA hold above $0.016 (current price) amid delisting-driven sell pressure from INDODAX users ahead of withdrawal deadlines?

Deep Dive

1. Liquidity Strain (Bearish Impact)

Overview: ALPACA’s 24h volume of $1.12M represents 42.7% of its $2.62M market cap (turnover ratio = 0.427). This indicates shallow order books where moderate selling can disproportionately impact price.

What this means: Low liquidity amplifies volatility – the token’s 90-day price decline (-41.5%) likely triggered stop-loss exits and panic selling in thin markets. Declining volume (-2.93% weekly in crypto spot markets) exacerbates this vulnerability.

2. Technical Downtrend (Bearish Impact)

Overview: Price ($0.0173) sits below all key moving averages (7-day SMA: $0.0183, 30-day SMA: $0.0185). The MACD histogram (+0.000138) shows weak bullish momentum failing to offset RSI weakness (14-day: 42.62).

What this means: Technical traders interpret sustained sub-SMA prices as confirmation of bearish structure. The failed July rally (350% spike then -33% crash) left overhead resistance at $0.085, creating a “sell the rip” psychology.

What to watch: A close above the 30-day SMA ($0.0185) could signal short-term relief, while loss of $0.0159 (July 2025 low) risks cascading liquidations.

3. Exchange Exodus (Bearish Impact)

Overview: INDODAX announced ALPACA’s August 7 delisting, following Binance’s May 2025 removal. These exits erase ~85% of historical liquidity sources.

What this means: Reduced exchange access diminishes institutional interest and complicates price discovery. The project’s May 2025 shutdown announcement left ALPACA as a “zombie token” with no protocol utility, accelerating exchange withdrawals.

Conclusion

ALPACA’s decline reflects a feedback loop of deteriorating fundamentals, technical breakdowns, and evaporating liquidity – classic traits of assets losing market relevance. While oversold RSI readings (28.42 on 1h timeframe) hint at bounce potential, the absence of use cases or major exchange support limits upside.

Key watch: Can ALPACA hold the July 17 swing low of $0.0159? A breach could trigger algorithmic trading systems to target 2025’s $0.0112 low.