Altlayer (ALT) Price Prediction

Deep Dive

1. Project Adoption vs. Token Unlocks (Mixed Impact)

Overview:
AltLayer expanded its Rollup-as-a-Service (RaaS) to Polkadot (AltLayer) and secured key integrations like Astar Network’s dApp staking program. However, 240.8M ALT ($8.2M) unlocked on July 25, 2025 represented 6.02% of supply, adding sell-side risk. Another 2.52% unlock occurred in August 2025.

What this means:
While partnerships strengthen long-term utility (bullish), concentrated unlocks could suppress prices if recipients sell into thin liquidity (turnover ratio: 7.9%). Historical unlocks in June/July 2025 correlated with 9-15% price dips.

2. Restaking Narrative Momentum (Bullish)

Overview:
ALT serves as a staking asset alongside ETH in AltLayer’s security model via EigenLayer restaking. The protocol’s TVL grew 22% QoQ as of August 2025, per DefiLlama data.

What this means:
Increased ETH restaking activity (EigenLayer TVL: $18.6B) could funnel demand to ALT as a complementary asset. However, ALT’s 1.4% annual staking yield trails ETH’s 3.2%, limiting incentive alignment.

3. Technical Positioning (Neutral)

Overview:
ALT trades at $0.034, below the 200-day EMA ($0.044) but above the 30-day SMA ($0.033). The RSI (49.93) and MACD (0.0001 bullish crossover) suggest indecision.

What this means:
A sustained break above $0.035 (23.6% Fib) could target $0.039 (July high). Conversely, loss of $0.032 support (50-day SMA) may trigger 15% downside to $0.027.

Conclusion

AltLayer’s price hinges on whether ecosystem growth outpaces unlock-driven selling. The Polkadot integration and restaking utility provide fundamental anchors, but traders should monitor exchange inflows post-unlocks. Can ALT’s 28.7% 90-day rally extend despite 6M+ tokens entering circulation weekly?