Aptos (APT) Price Prediction

Deep Dive

1. Token Unlocks & Vesting Schedule (Bearish Impact)

Overview:
11.31M APT ($48M, 2.2% of supply) unlocks on 11 September 2025, continuing monthly unlocks until 2028. Core contributors/investors still hold 32.5% of total supply (1.17B APT) under 4-year vesting.

What this means:
Unlocks create persistent overhang – APT dropped 7.8% after May 2025’s unlock. However, 71% of APT is staked (Token Unlock Data), which may cushion immediate dumps.

2. Real-World Assets & Institutional Adoption (Bullish Impact)

Overview:
Aptos hosts $720M+ in tokenized assets (BlackRock’s BUIDL, Franklin Templeton’s BENJI). Bitwise amended its APT ETF filing for in-kind redemptions in August 2025, easing regulatory path (Bitwise).

What this means:
RWA growth correlates with APT utility – every $100M TVL increase historically lifted prices 5-7%. ETF approval could mirror Bitcoin’s 2024 ETF impact, though APT’s smaller market cap amplifies volatility.

3. Technical & On-Chain Signals (Mixed Impact)

Overview:
APT holds above 200-day SMA ($4.43) with bullish MACD crossover. However, RSI 49.7 shows neutral momentum. On-chain, 868K daily active addresses process 3M+ transactions, but DeFi TVL fell 16% to $703M in Sept 2025 (Web3_Oma).

What this means:
Price needs to hold $4.46 support to avoid retesting $4.20. Break above $5.13 could trigger 15-20% rally (per Fibonacci extensions), but thin order books magnify downside risks.

Conclusion

Aptos’ price hinges on absorbing $48M unlocks while converting RWA momentum into protocol revenue. Watch the 11 September unlock absorption rate and any ETF updates – failure to hold $4.46 could see bears target 2024 lows near $3.50.

Can Aptos’ developer growth (74 weekly active teams) offset its vesting overhang in Q4?