Aurora (AURORA) Price Prediction

Deep Dive

1. Ecosystem Growth Catalysts (Bullish Impact)

Overview: Aurora’s Blocks Incubator has launched five startups, including carbon credit platform Sproutly and AI trading tool Tradable. The upcoming Fork That Chain Bootcamp (starting August 18) aims to onboard developers to NEAR and Aurora Cloud, backed by DIA’s zero-cost oracle grants for dApps.

What this means: Increased developer activity could drive demand for AURORA as the governance token. However, with only ~630M tokens circulating (63% of supply), future unlocks from the DAO treasury (48% of total supply) risk dilution if adoption lags.

2. Supply Dynamics (Mixed Impact)

Overview: Aurora burned 3,231.17 AURORA in July 2025 – a small fraction of its 1B max supply. Tokenomics reveal 16% of supply allocated to Aurora Labs remains locked until 2026, while private investors (9% allocation) began unlocking tokens in May 2025.

What this means: Burns could marginally offset inflation, but the 200-day EMA at $0.0955 (30% above current price) shows overhead resistance from past unlocks. Sustained price recovery likely requires accelerated burns or staking mechanisms.

3. NEAR Protocol Correlation (Bullish/Bearish)

Overview: Aurora’s EVM runs on NEAR, whose price surged 5.8% to $2.91 on August 13 amid $7.6M institutional inflows. NEAR’s weekly active users (16M) now exceed Solana, partly driven by Aurora-powered projects.

What this means: Positive NEAR momentum could lift Aurora via ecosystem synergy. However, Aurora’s 90-day correlation with NEAR stands at 0.68 – strong but not absolute. Decoupling risk exists if Aurora-specific adoption falters.

Conclusion

Aurora’s price hinges on converting developer tools like the Cloud Console into tangible usage, while managing supply inflation. The $0.0747 Fibonacci level (23.6% retracement) is key resistance. Can Aurora’s incubator graduates onboard users faster than tokens unlock? Monitor weekly active addresses and DAO treasury movements.