Latest Axelar (AXL) Price Analysis

Deep Dive

1. XRPL EVM Sidechain & mXRP Launch (Bullish Impact)

Overview: Axelar’s infrastructure powers cross-chain interoperability for XRP Ledger’s EVM-compatible sidechain, which went live on June 30, 2025. The September 22 launch of mXRP – a liquid staking token leveraging Axelar bridges – locked XRP to generate yields up to 10%, directly tying AXL to XRP’s DeFi expansion (The Block).

What this means: Axelar benefits from transaction fees and increased demand for cross-chain services as mXRP adoption grows. The partnership positions AXL as critical infrastructure for XRPL’s smart contract ecosystem, which now supports over 1,400 contracts.

What to look out for: mXRP’s total value locked (TVL) growth and Axelar’s daily active addresses, which surged 85% post-launch.

2. Altcoin Season Speculation (Mixed Impact)

Overview: Bitcoin dominance fell to 58.19% (down 0.09% in 24h), while the Altcoin Season Index rose 6.45% this week. AXL, as an interoperability token, often leads rotations into altcoins during such phases.

What this means: Traders are betting on cross-chain narratives amid rising EVM adoption. However, AXL’s 24h volume (-9.91% to $10.8M) shows weaker momentum compared to July’s $193M surge during prior altseason chatter.

3. Technical Rebound from Oversold Levels

Overview: AXL trades at $0.296, above its 7-day SMA ($0.291) but below the 30-day SMA ($0.311). The MACD histogram (-0.003025) remains negative, but RSI (43.51) suggests selling pressure is easing.

What this means: The price stabilized near the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level ($0.35457), with a break above $0.30 potentially triggering short-term bullish reversals.

Conclusion

Axelar’s price uptick reflects strategic partnerships expanding its cross-chain utility, coupled with cautious optimism in altcoin markets. While mXRP’s success could drive sustained demand, AXL faces overhead resistance at $0.30–$0.32.

Key watch: Can mXRP’s TVL surpass $22M (current AUM) and amplify buying pressure for AXL? Monitor XRPL EVM sidechain activity and Bitcoin dominance trends for directional cues.

Deep Dive

1. Technical Resistance (Bearish Impact)

Overview: AXL trades at $0.29, below all major moving averages (7-day SMA: $0.29, 30-day SMA: $0.31). The MACD histogram (-0.0037) and RSI-7 (33.44) signal oversold conditions but lack bullish reversal confirmation.
What this means: The "death cross" (30-day SMA above 7-day) suggests sustained selling pressure. Bulls need a close above $0.32 (50-day SMA) to invalidate the downtrend.

2. Broader Market Slowdown (Mixed Impact)

Overview: Global crypto market cap dipped 1.87% in 24h, with derivatives volume down 26.36% weekly. Altcoin season index fell 19.72% this week.
What this means: Risk appetite cooled as Bitcoin dominance rose to 58.19%. Interoperability tokens like AXL often underperform in risk-off environments.

3. Post-mXRP Launch Volatility (Neutral Impact)

Overview: Axelar’s mXRP launch (Sep 22) initially drove an 11% price spike, but gains faded as XRP-focused yields attracted competing liquidity. Daily active addresses dropped 16% post-launch (The Block).
What this means: While mXRP’s $22M TVL shows utility, short-term traders likely rotated profits into newer narratives.

Conclusion

AXL’s stagnation stems from technical resistance, fading partnership momentum, and a cautious altcoin market. While the mXRP integration strengthens long-term cross-chain utility, near-term recovery depends on reclaiming $0.32 resistance.

Key watch: Can AXL hold above its 24h low of $0.275 (Fibonacci 78.6% level) amid rising derivatives open interest (+2.65% today)?