Axelar (AXL) Price Prediction

Deep Dive

1. EVM Sidechain Expansion (Bullish Impact)

Overview:
Axelar’s integration as the primary bridge for XRP Ledger’s EVM-compatible sidechain (launched June 2025) positions it as critical infrastructure for cross-chain DeFi. Over $165M in assets bridged via Axelar to EVM chains in July 2025, with 1,400+ smart contracts deployed in the first week.

What this means:
Direct exposure to XRPL’s 7M+ wallets and Ethereum’s developer base could drive AXL demand for gas fees and governance. Historical parallels (e.g., Chainlink’s 2021 surge during DeFi growth) suggest upside if adoption accelerates (CoinGape).

2. Altseason Sentiment & Competition (Mixed Impact)

Overview:
The Altcoin Season Index rose 66.7% in 30 days (to 60 by September 2025), favoring interoperability tokens. However, Axelar competes with Wormhole and LayerZero, which control 34% of cross-chain volume.

What this means:
While Axelar’s $52B+ processed cross-chain volume in 2025 highlights traction, sector crowding may cap gains. AXL’s 8.72% weekly gain (vs. sector avg. 6.1%) shows momentum but requires sustained developer activity (2x monthly code commits vs. historical avg) to outpace rivals (CryptoNewsLand).

3. Token Unlocks & Staking Dynamics (Bearish Impact)

Overview:
A $6.4M AXL unlock on July 27, 2025 (1.57% of circulating supply) coincides with low staking yields (1.5% APY on Bitvavo vs. sector avg 3.2%), reducing incentive to hold.

What this means:
Post-unlock selling pressure could test the $0.30 support (Fib 78.6% level). However, Axelar’s 924% DAA divergence spike post-Upbit listing (June 2025) shows retail responsiveness to catalysts, potentially offsetting dilution (CCN).

Conclusion

Axelar’s price trajectory balances cross-chain utility gains against dilution risks and sector competition. The XRPL EVM integration and rising altseason momentum could propel AXL toward $0.51 (30-day SMA), but unlocks and thin staking rewards warrant caution.

Will Axelar’s developer growth outpace its token supply inflation? Monitor weekly GitHub commits vs. unlock schedules.