Latest Four (FORM) Price Analysis

Deep Dive

1. Short Squeeze Mechanics (Mixed Impact)

Overview: FORM surged 30% on September 28–29, 2025, rising from $0.91 to $1.47, driven by a short squeeze. Open interest doubled to $26M, with funding rates turning positive (+0.01% per 8h) as traders piled into leveraged longs (Yahoo Finance).

What this means: Thin liquidity (24h volume: $45.87M vs. $401M market cap) magnified price swings. Shorts capitulated near all-time lows, creating a feedback loop. However, the price settled at $1.05 by October 2, suggesting momentum faded.

What to look out for: Sustained closes above $1.14 (September high) could reignite bullish sentiment; failure risks retesting $0.91 lows.

2. Oversold Technical Setup (Bullish Impact)

Overview: FORM’s 14-day RSI hit 26.8 on September 28 – its lowest since March 2025 – signaling extreme oversold conditions. The MACD histogram turned positive (+0.0197), indicating bullish divergence.

What this means: Traders interpreted this as a buying opportunity, especially after a 68% 30-day drop. The 7-day SMA ($1.06) now acts as resistance; reclaiming it could stabilize prices.

What to look out for: A break above the 30-day SMA ($2.18) would signal a stronger recovery.

3. RWA Module Speculation (Neutral Impact)

Overview: Four’s September 8 announcement of a Risk-Weighted Assets (RWA) module for BNB Chain projects sparked initial interest. The feature aims to tokenize equity, mining rights, and IP.

What this means: While no immediate volume surge followed, the narrative aligns with 2025’s RWA trend (+32% Altcoin Season Index). Delays in implementation, however, muted its impact.

What to look out for: Concrete adoption metrics or partnerships tied to the RWA module.

Conclusion

FORM’s 24h rise reflects a blend of technical rebound and residual squeeze effects, though broader bearish trends (68% monthly drop) persist. Key watch: Can FORM hold $1.05 support, or will fading momentum and Bitcoin’s 58% dominance drag it lower? Monitor derivatives data and RWA updates for directional cues.

Deep Dive

1. Post-Short Squeeze Retracement (Bearish Impact)

Overview: FORM surged 30% on Sept 28-29 after hitting a $0.91 all-time low, fueled by a derivatives-driven short squeeze. Open interest doubled to $26M, forcing liquidations. However, prices retreated to $1.04 as momentum faded and profit-taking kicked in.

What this means: Short squeezes often create unsustainable rallies. With FORM’s 24h trading volume down 19.86% to $39.2M, follow-through buying dried up. The token remains 75% below its August high of $4.19, reflecting persistent bearish sentiment.

2. Technical Breakdown (Mixed Impact)

Overview: FORM trades below all key moving averages (7-day SMA: $1.07; 200-day EMA: $2.47). The RSI-14 at 26.67 signals extreme oversold conditions, yet the MACD histogram remains negative (-0.55067).

What this means: While oversold levels suggest potential for a bounce, the lack of bullish reversal patterns and weak volume indicate sellers dominate. A sustained break above the 7-day SMA ($1.07) is needed to signal short-term recovery.

3. Altcoin Underperformance (Bearish Impact)

Overview: The Altcoin Season Index dropped from 71 to 58 this week as Bitcoin dominance rose to 58.2%. FORM’s -3.22% underperformed the broader crypto market (+3.38% in total cap).

What this means: Traders are favoring Bitcoin and large caps over speculative altcoins. FORM’s low liquidity (turnover ratio 0.0986) exacerbates volatility, making it vulnerable to outsized moves during risk-off shifts.

Conclusion

FORM’s decline reflects a cooling-off period after a leveraged rally, weak technicals, and sector-wide altcoin weakness. While oversold conditions could invite tactical buying, the token faces stiff resistance near $1.07–$1.14. Key watch: Whether derivatives open interest rebounds above $20M to fuel another squeeze attempt.