Bitcoin (BTC) Price Prediction

Deep Dive

1. Fed Rate Cuts & Inflation (Mixed Impact)

Overview: The Fed’s September rate cut initially boosted crypto, but Chair Powell’s September 24 warning about labor market weakness and sticky inflation triggered $1.7B in liquidations. Traders now price a 91.9% chance of an October cut (Bitget). September’s CPI (due October 10) could reignite volatility: a soft print (<2.7%) may spur rallies, while hot data risks breaking $100K support.

What this means: Rate cuts could funnel liquidity into crypto, but persistent inflation may delay easing, pressuring BTC’s risk-asset appeal. Historical correlations show BTC thrives in low-rate regimes but struggles when real yields rise.

2. ETF Outflows & New Products (Bearish Impact)

Overview: U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs saw $3,211 BTC outflows on September 24 (Fidelity’s FBTC: -2,463 BTC), extending a 30-day net outflow of $47M (CoinGlass). However, the SEC’s approval of Hashdex’s multi-asset ETF (including XRP/SOL) and Chainlink’s Proof of Reserve integration for BTC/ETH ETPs (MEXC) signal institutional adoption.

What this means: Sustained ETF outflows reduce buy-side pressure, but diversified products could attract fresh capital long-term. Short-term, the $100K psychological level hinges on reversing outflow trends.

3. Technical Weakness (Bearish Impact)

Overview: BTC broke below its 30-day SMA ($112,814) and 23.6% Fib level ($115,400). The RSI14 (36) approaches oversold, but the MACD histogram (-549) shows bearish momentum. Immediate support is $107,271 (August swing low), with resistance at $113,800.

What this means: A close below $107K could trigger algorithmic sell-offs toward $100K. However, oversold RSI and a 200-day SMA at $104K may slow declines.

Conclusion

Bitcoin faces headwinds from ETF outflows and technical breakdowns, but Fed liquidity and institutional adoption offer recovery potential. Monitor ETF flow reversals (via CoinGlass) and CPI data on October 10 – will inflation align with the “soft landing” narrative, or spark a deeper correction?