Deep Dive
1. NFT Market Cooling (Bearish Impact)
Overview: NFT trading volumes fell 4% in July despite a brief surge, with Blur’s daily dominance dropping from 80% to ~50% by August 2025 (DappRadar). Declining blue-chip NFT floor prices (e.g., CryptoPunks) reduced platform fee revenue expectations.
What this means: Blur’s tokenomics rely heavily on trading activity – lower volumes directly impact incentives for holders. The 24h trading volume of $28.5M represents a 107% surge, but this likely reflects panic selling rather than organic demand.
What to look out for: August NFT volume reports and Ethereum gas trends, as high fees typically depress NFT activity.
2. Technical Breakdown (Bearish Impact)
Overview: BLUR broke below its 200-day SMA ($0.0925) on September 22, with the RSI(14) at 41.15 – neither oversold nor bullish. The MACD histogram turned negative (-0.00039938), confirming bearish momentum.
What this means: Traders often treat the 200-day SMA as a “make-or-break” level. The sustained close below it suggests algorithmic traders and swing investors are exiting positions. Fibonacci retracement shows next support at $0.0752 (78.6% level).
3. Whale Distribution (Mixed Impact)
Overview: A whale moved 34.2M BLUR ($4M) to exchanges in mid-July 2025 (Lookonchain), with residual holdings still exceeding $4.5M.
What this means: While this specific event is older, the lack of major buy-side whale activity since suggests large holders are maintaining a neutral-to-bearish stance. The 24h volume spike (+107%) indicates retail traders amplified the downward move.
Conclusion
Blur’s drop reflects a triple threat: fading NFT momentum, technical breakdowns, and cautious whale behavior. While oversold conditions could prompt a bounce, the lack of catalysts in NFT innovation or platform upgrades leaves BLUR vulnerable to further downside.
Key watch: Can BLUR hold the $0.075 Fibonacci support, or will it test the June 2025 low of $0.0709?