Blur (BLUR) Price Prediction

Deep Dive

1. Token Unlocks and Inflation Risk (Bearish Impact)

Overview:
Only 360M of BLUR’s 3B max supply (12%) is circulating. Non-community tokens (49% of supply) remain locked until February 2027 (Bitstamp). With 39% of tokens earmarked for community incentives, sustained selling pressure could emerge if engagement falters.

What this means:
Historical precedents (e.g., APT, SUI) show tokens often struggle during major unlock events. BLUR’s fully diluted valuation of $235M vs. current $198M market cap implies ~18% downside risk if unlocked tokens flood markets prematurely.

2. NFT Sector Dominance (Bullish Catalyst)

Overview:
Blur processed $530M NFT volume in July 2025 – 80% of Ethereum’s total – as user activity surpassed DeFi for the first time (DappRadar). The platform’s Blend protocol also enables NFT-collateralized loans, deepening utility.

What this means:
BLUR’s price historically correlates with NFT volume spikes. The 29% rally in July 2025 coincided with record platform usage. Continued adoption by blue-chip collections like CryptoPunks could sustain demand.

3. Whale Behavior and Liquidity (Mixed Impact)

Overview:
A whale transferred 34.2M BLUR ($4M) to exchanges in May 2025 while retaining 43.69M tokens (Lookonchain). Derivatives open interest for BLUR surged 92% in July 2025, signaling speculative interest.

What this means:
Large holders’ actions create volatility – the May 2025 transfer preceded a 22% price drop. However, rising open interest (+92% in July 2025) suggests traders are positioning for volatility around NFT market shifts.

Conclusion

BLUR’s price trajectory hinges on whether NFT market growth outpaces token supply inflation. While platform innovation (e.g., Blend) and sector leadership provide upside, unlocks and whale exits pose persistent risks. Will Blur’s treasury management mitigate dilution fears as vesting schedules progress? Monitor the circulating supply metric and NFT volume share through Q4 2025.