Latest Cetus Protocol (CETUS) Price Analysis

Deep Dive

1. Aggregator Upgrade (Bullish Impact)

Overview: Cetus deployed a critical upgrade to its DEX aggregator on August 15, integrating FullSailFi’s liquidity pools with dynamic fee structures. This enhances swap pricing and execution quality for Sui traders.

What this means: Improved liquidity reduces slippage, making CETUS more attractive for high-volume traders. The upgrade aligns with Cetus’ post-hack roadmap to rebuild infrastructure credibility. Volume spiked to $23.7M (+185% vs June averages) post-upgrade, suggesting renewed activity.

What to look out for: Sustained volume above $25M/day could signal successful adoption of new liquidity routes.

2. User Growth Milestone (Bullish Impact)

Overview: Cetus crossed 17M total accounts on August 13, cementing its position as Sui’s most-used DeFi app despite May’s $223M exploit.

What this means: The milestone demonstrates resilient user trust – accounts grew 13% since the June relaunch. However, the price remains 59% below pre-hack levels ($0.2572), indicating lingering valuation skepticism.

What to look out for: Whether Q3 product launches (Cetus Pro/Tide) convert user growth into fee revenue.

3. Technical Rebound (Mixed Impact)

Overview: CETUS holds above its pivot point ($0.1004) with RSI at neutral 49.72, but faces immediate resistance at the 30-day SMA ($0.108).

What this means: The 24h gain reflects short-term buying pressure, but MACD remains bearish (-0.00086464 histogram). Fibonacci levels suggest upside to $0.116 (50% retracement) if $0.108 breaks, but failure risks retest of $0.0895 swing low.

Conclusion

CETUS’ minor rebound reflects incremental progress in liquidity infrastructure and user retention post-crisis, though technicals and macro conditions (SUI down 4.42% MTD) limit upside. Key watch: Can Cetus maintain >$1B weekly trading volume through August to validate its compensation plan’s effectiveness?

Deep Dive

1. Technical Weakness (Bearish Impact)

Overview:
CETUS trades at $0.0897, below all major moving averages (7-day SMA: $0.0997, 30-day SMA: $0.1081). The RSI-7 sits at 32.65, nearing oversold territory but not yet signaling a reversal.

What this means:
- Price rejection at the 7-day EMA ($0.0988) suggests weak bullish momentum.
- MACD histogram (-0.0016) confirms bearish divergence.
- Immediate support at $0.0915 (May 2025 swing low) failed to hold, raising risks of a drop toward $0.077 (2024 low).

What to watch:
A close above the 24h high of $0.094 could ease selling pressure.

2. Post-Hack Sentiment (Bearish Impact)

Overview:
CETUS remains -44.9% below pre-hack levels (May 22, 2025) despite recovering $162M of the $223M stolen. Recent milestones (e.g., 17M accounts) haven’t fully offset trust deficits.

What this means:
- Compensation delays: Only 85-99% of liquidity restored post-relaunch (June 8), with 15% of CETUS supply allocated for reimbursements still vesting until mid-2026.
- Volume divergence: Despite hitting $1B+ weekly volumes, CETUS’s price trails ecosystem growth, per Cetus Protocol’s tweet.

3. Sui Ecosystem Drag (Mixed Impact)

Overview:
SUI, the blockchain hosting Cetus, fell -5.8% over 7 days. While Sui’s DeFi TVL rebounded to $2.6B, CETUS’s role as the primary DEX ties it closely to Sui’s volatility.

What this means:
- Liquidity dependency: CETUS handles ~43% of Sui’s DEX volume (July 2025 data), amplifying its sensitivity to Sui’s price swings.
- Altcoin season lag: Bitcoin dominance at 58.8% (near yearly highs) pressures smaller alts like CETUS.

Conclusion

CETUS’s decline reflects technical breakdowns, unresolved post-hack risks, and its tight coupling to Sui’s underperformance. While protocol upgrades (e.g., August 15 aggregator update) aim to boost utility, regaining pre-exploit momentum requires sustained volume growth and faster compensation payouts.

Key watch: Can CETUS hold the $0.085 level – a psychological support zone – amid broader crypto market uncertainty?