Deep Dive
1. Revenue-Driven Buybacks (Mixed Impact)
Overview:
Cherry AI allocates 50% of ecosystem revenue (trading fees, ads, gaming) to token buybacks and burns. Projections suggest $20M annual revenue by 2025 (Cherry AI), which at current prices could remove ~4.86B tokens yearly – 22% of circulating supply. However, August 2025 revenue data remains undisclosed post-TGE.
What this means:
Successful revenue growth could create structural demand, but current $0.004 price implies skepticism about near-term targets. Burns require sustained platform adoption – failure to meet projections might accelerate sell pressure.
2. Vesting Schedule Overhang (Bearish Impact)
Overview:
60M seed-sale tokens (bought at $0.009) unlock in August 2026, creating 27% sell pressure relative to current circulation. Team/advisor tokens (17.5% supply) begin unlocking December 2026.
What this means:
Early backers hold 89% paper losses at current prices ($0.004 vs. $0.009 entry). While this may deter dumping, any price recovery toward $0.008 could trigger profit-taking. Historical data shows microcap tokens often face 40-60% drawdowns near major unlocks.
3. Staking & Product Launches (Bullish Impact)
Overview:
Live staking offers loot boxes funded by revenue buybacks, while Q3’s AI trading terminal (roadmap) aims to capture users from established bots like Banana Gun.
What this means:
Successful staking participation could lock 20-30% of supply short-term based on similar projects. The terminal needs 50K+ MAUs to meaningfully contribute to fee revenue – current metrics show 815K ecosystem users but unclear activity levels.
Conclusion
AIBOT’s price recovery hinges on converting its 800K+ claimed users into active fee generators before 2026 unlocks. While the burn mechanism offers long-term deflationary potential, the next 6 months require visible revenue traction. Can Cherry AI’s September product updates demonstrate >$1M monthly recurring revenue to offset vesting risks?