dYdX (ethDYDX) (ETHDYDX) Price Prediction

Deep Dive

1. Bridge Sunset Proposal (Mixed Impact)

Overview: A pending governance vote (dYdX Forum) aims to disable ETH↔dYdX Chain token migration by Q1 2026. This would strand 226M ETHDYDX (~23% of total supply) on Ethereum, effectively removing them from circulation.

What this means: Reduced sellable supply could counter inflation, but fragmented liquidity between ETHDYDX and DYDX tokens may dampen trading efficiency. Historical precedent shows similar supply shocks causing +15-30% volatility spikes in other Cosmos ecosystem tokens.

2. Buyback Program (Bullish Impact)

Overview: Since July 2025, dYdX has allocated protocol revenue to buy ETHDYDX from open markets, staking acquired tokens to validators (CoinMarketCap). This directly reduces circulating supply while increasing network security.

What this means: The program could offset ~4.2M monthly token unlocks if sustained, creating a deflationary counterweight. Staking these tokens also lowers liquid supply, potentially amplifying price impact per buyback dollar.

3. Vesting Unlocks (Bearish Impact)

Overview: 10% of ETHDYDX’s 1B supply remains locked, releasing monthly until June 2026 per the vesting schedule. These tokens belong to early investors and team members, who’ve historically sold >60% of unlocked holdings within 30 days.

What this means: At current prices, ~$6.2M worth of ETHDYDX enters circulation monthly – equivalent to 37% of its 24h trading volume. This creates persistent overhead resistance absent countervailing demand.

Conclusion

ETHDYDX’s trajectory hinges on whether buybacks/vesting outpaces unlock-driven selling. Technicals show neutral momentum (RSI 50.4) with key resistance at $0.71 (23.6% Fib). How might protocol revenue trends – currently funding buybacks – shift if the altcoin rotation stalls?