EigenLayer (EIGEN) Price Prediction

Deep Dive

1. Token Unlocks & Vesting Risks (Bearish Impact)

Overview:
On October 1, 2025, 36.82M EIGEN tokens ($68.5M at $1.86) unlock, primarily for early investors and contributors. This represents 13.7% of the circulating supply, the largest unlock since its April 2024 launch. Historical data shows EIGEN dropped 45% after its March 2025 unlock (CoinJournal).

What this means:
Immediate dilution could test the $1.70 support (Fib 38.2% level). However, if recipients stake instead of sell – as 88% did during Season 1 – downside may be muted. Monitor exchange inflows post-unlock.

2. EigenCloud & Multi-Chain Growth (Bullish Impact)

Overview:
EigenLayer’s rebrand to EigenCloud in June 2025 introduced multi-chain verification, enabling AVSs (Actively Validated Services) to deploy on L2s like Base. Partnerships with Google Cloud and NTT Digital aim to institutionalize restaking (Blockworks).

What this means:
Expanding to non-EVM chains could boost EIGEN’s utility as the staking token. EigenCloud’s $17B+ staked ETH/EIGEN and 140K+ restakers signal sticky demand, potentially offsetting unlock pressures.

3. Liquid Restaking Competition (Mixed Impact)

Overview:
EigenLayer dominates 70% of the $28.6B restaking sector (DeFiLlama). However, Puffer’s anti-slashing nLRTs and Lyra’s tokenized derivatives yields threaten its moat.

What this means:
While network effects favor EigenLayer, competitors could fragment TVL growth. EIGEN’s 30-day price correlation with LDO (Lido) is 0.82, suggesting sector-wide risks if restaking APYs compress.

Conclusion

EIGEN’s price hinges on whether EigenCloud’s adoption outpaces token supply shocks. The October unlock and $1.70 support breach risk a retest of June 2025’s $1.11 low, while AVS integrations and institutional demand could fuel a rebound toward $2.35 (Fib 127.2%).

Will EigenLayer’s “verifiable cloud” narrative offset crypto’s macro headwinds in Q4? Watch the ETH/EIGEN staking ratio and AVS count post-unlock.