Ethereum Classic (ETC) Price Prediction

Deep Dive

1. Olympia Upgrade & Treasury Model (Bullish Impact)

Overview: The Olympia Upgrade proposes EIP-1559-style fee burns (redirecting 80% of base fees to a DAO treasury) and on-chain governance. Testnet rollout begins in 2025, with mainnet activation targeted for late 2026. BITMAIN and ANTPOOL’s $10M ecosystem fund adds development firepower.

What this means: Fee burns could reduce ETC’s inflation rate (currently ~3.7% annually), while DAO governance may attract decentralized app builders. Historically, EIP-1559 on ETH reduced net issuance by 1.1% annually pre-Merge. If ETC mimics this, its deflationary pivot could support prices.

2. Proof-of-Work vs. Market Trends (Mixed Impact)

Overview: ETC remains one of the largest PoW smart contract chains after ETH’s shift to PoS. However, Tether’s discontinuation of USDT on ETC (August 2025) reduced liquidity, while competitors like Solana and Avalanche prioritize scalability.

What this means: ETC’s PoW ethos appeals to decentralization purists but risks marginalization as Layer 2 solutions dominate. Its 30-day volatility (-12.97%) underperforms ETH (-7.94%), reflecting weaker speculative interest. Network security costs (~$18.31/miner reward) must balance against hash rate stability to prevent 51% attacks (Phemex).

3. Macro Risks & Regulatory Sentiment (Neutral/Bearish)

Overview: The Fed’s September 2025 rate cut spurred crypto volume spikes (+60% in derivatives), but ETC’s 24h turnover (3.35%) lags the market average (4.63%). Hong Kong’s new Web3 regulations could favor ETC’s PoW model if energy-use criticisms ease.

What this means: ETC’s correlation with BTC (30-day: +0.72) means macro liquidity shifts will dominate short-term moves. However, prolonged regulatory hostility toward PoW (e.g., EU’s MiCA energy reporting rules) could pressure miners, reducing network security and investor confidence.

Conclusion

Ethereum Classic’s price trajectory hinges on executing the Olympia Upgrade to improve tokenomics and governance, while navigating PoW’s existential challenges. Near-term, watch the $20.07 Fibonacci resistance (50% retracement) for bullish confirmation. Long-term, can ETC’s “Code is Law” ethos outpace scalability-focused rivals? Monitor DAO proposal adoption rates and hash rate trends for clues.