Ethereum (ETH) Price Prediction

Deep Dive

1. Protocol Upgrades (Bullish Impact)

Overview:
The Fusaka hard fork (scheduled Nov 2025) aims to boost Ethereum’s throughput via EIP-7935 (block gas limit increase to 150M) and EIP-7594 (data sharding). This follows the Dencun upgrade’s 90% fee reduction for Layer 2s.

What this means:
Improved scalability could attract more DeFi/NFT projects, increasing ETH’s utility demand. Historically, major upgrades like The Merge (2022) drove 74% price gains in subsequent months. However, execution risks persist—Ethereum’s 13 TPS still trails Solana’s 50k TPS.

2. ETF Staking Approval (Mixed Impact)

Overview:
BlackRock’s amended ETHA filing seeks SEC approval to stake ETF-held ETH, potentially enabling 3-6% annual yield for institutions. Similar proposals from VanEck and Fidelity are under review.

What this means:
Approval could lock ~30% of ETH supply in staking contracts (CoinDesk), replicating Bitcoin ETF’s $58B inflow effect. However, rejection might trigger selloffs—ETH’s 30-day correlation with ETF news stands at 0.87.

3. Whale Accumulation (Bullish Signal)

Overview:
17 listed companies now hold 3.4M ETH ($14.6B), per Q2 2025 disclosures. SharpLink Gaming alone added 56,533 ETH in August, while a single whale accumulated 138K ETH ($586M) in 7 days.

What this means:
Mega-whales (10k+ ETH wallets) control 41.4M ETH—34% of supply. This reduces liquid supply, creating upward pressure. However, concentrated ownership risks volatility if whales exit—similar to March 2025’s 23% drop post-Mt. Gox BTC moves.

Conclusion

Ethereum’s price trajectory hinges on balancing technical execution against macroeconomic headwinds. The Fusaka upgrade and ETF staking decision could catalyze a rally toward $5,500 by Q1 2026, but failure to resolve L1/L2 fragmentation might cede ground to Solana. Watch the SEC’s Nov 5 ETF ruling—will Ethereum’s “ultrasound money” narrative withstand the market’s stress test?