FirmaChain (FCT) Price Prediction

Deep Dive

1. Mainnet Upgrade Execution (Mixed Impact)

Overview: FirmaChain’s v0.5.0 mainnet upgrade (announced 12 August 2025) aims to enhance scalability and security. Major South Korean exchanges like Bithumb and Upbit paused FCT2 deposits/withdrawals during the transition, completed by 19 August.

What this means: Successful implementation could attract developers to its document-authentication use cases, but operational hiccups during the upgrade (e.g., delayed service resumptions) might erode trader confidence. Historical data shows altcoins often dip 5–15% during technical halts but rebound if upgrades deliver tangible improvements.

2. Token Unlock Schedule (Bearish Impact)

Overview: A 2022 unlock plan (source) resumes, releasing ~9.6M FCT monthly until December 2025. While 20M tokens were postponed to 2023, current unlocks add +0.9% monthly to circulating supply (1.05B FCT).

What this means: Increased sell pressure is likely if demand doesn’t absorb new supply—especially with FCT’s 24h volume ($1.48M) covering just 5.7% of its market cap. The 90-day price drop (-11%) aligns with past unlocks, suggesting weak absorption capacity.

3. Altcoin Market Positioning (Neutral Impact)

Overview: FCT trades at $0.0247, below all key EMAs (7-day: $0.0259; 200-day: $0.0295). However, the Altcoin Season Index (69/100) signals growing risk appetite for smaller caps, potentially offsetting FCT’s weak technicals.

What this means: Broader altcoin rallies could lift FCT, but its low turnover (5.7% liquidity ratio) and -41% yearly return make it a laggard. Watch Bitcoin dominance (57.64%)—a drop below 55% might trigger altcoin inflows.

Conclusion

FCT’s price hinges on post-upgrade adoption versus persistent sell pressure from unlocks. While network improvements could stabilize the $0.024 support, the 200-day EMA ($0.0295) remains a critical resistance. Can FCT’s “Utilitainment” narrative offset its inflationary tokenomics in a neutral macro environment? Monitor exchange inflows/outflows post-unlocks and developer activity post-upgrade.