Fuel Network (FUEL) Price Prediction

Deep Dive

1. EigenDA Scalability Boost (Bullish Impact)

Overview: Fuel migrated its data availability layer to EigenDA on July 15, 2025, increasing throughput from 600 TPS to 5K TPS in devnet environments, with a roadmap to 150K TPS. This enables high-frequency applications like O2 and reduces transaction costs by ~90% versus Ethereum.

What this means: Historically, L2s with DA improvements (e.g., Arbitrum Nitro’s +67% TVL post-upgrade) see sustained demand. If Fuel’s mainnet sustains >20K TPS by Q4 2025, it could capture Ethereum DeFi migration, directly supporting FUEL’s utility demand.

2. V2 Token Migration Risks (Bearish Impact)

Overview: 997M FUEL ($4.97M) remains unclaimed in the V1→V2 migration contract ahead of the August 19 deadline. Post-deadline, unclaimed tokens revert to a new vesting schedule, forfeiting 8 months of unlocked supply.

What this means: Immediate sell pressure could intensify if late migrators offload vested tokens. However, successful migration (500M FUEL already moved) may stabilize circulating supply at 6.1B tokens, aligning with the current 61% circulation rate.

3. Staking & Altcoin Sentiment (Mixed Impact)

Overview: FUEL’s 5.3% Flex Staking APY on Bitvavo (no lock-up) competes with ETH’s 2.5% Fixed rate. Meanwhile, the Altcoin Season Index rose 15% MoM to 61, signaling capital rotation toward smaller caps.

What this means: Staking incentives might reduce liquid supply, but FUEL’s 90-day price decline (-48%) and RSI-37 oversold status suggest weak momentum. A break above the 200-day EMA ($0.0117) would require broader altcoin strength, currently hindered by Bitcoin’s 58% dominance.

Conclusion

FUEL’s price will hinge on whether EigenDA-driven adoption outpaces migration-related sell pressure. The $0.0045–$0.005 Fibonacci support zone is critical – a sustained break below could target 2025 lows ($0.0045). Watch the V2 migration rate and hourly TPS metrics post-August 19: can Fuel onboard the next 500K users needed to justify its $30M valuation?