Latest Graphite Protocol (GP) Price Analysis

Deep Dive

1. Technical Breakdown (Bearish Impact)

Overview: GP broke below its 30-day SMA ($1.21) and 200-day EMA ($1.12), with the RSI-14 at 40.67 signaling bearish momentum. The price now trades below the Fibonacci 23.6% retracement level ($1.77), with the pivot point at $0.917 acting as resistance.

What this means: Technical traders likely interpreted the break below $1.21 as a sell signal, exacerbating downward pressure. The MACD histogram’s weak positive reading (+0.0069) suggests bulls lack conviction to reverse the trend.

Key level to watch: A close below $0.811 (recent swing low) could trigger another 15–20% drop.

2. Buyback Slowdown (Mixed Impact)

Overview: While GP’s protocol uses 7.6% of bonk.fun platform fees for buybacks, recent on-chain activity shows reduced burn intensity. The team burned 4.7% of supply in mid-August but hasn’t announced major buybacks since (GraphiteProto).

What this means: Buybacks had previously offset selling pressure – their absence removes a key price floor. With 24h volume down 48.56% to $1.15M, low liquidity amplifies volatility.

3. Market-Wide Risk Aversion (Bearish Impact)

Overview: The crypto fear & greed index sits at 32 (“Fear”), while Bitcoin dominance rose to 58.14% as capital rotates to safer assets. GP’s 24h drop outpaced the altcoin sector (-1.22% vs. -6.09%).

What this means: As a mid-cap token ($27M market cap), GP is disproportionately impacted by shrinking risk appetite. The altcoin season index (72/100) shows selective rallies, but GP lacks recent catalysts to attract bids.

Conclusion

GP’s decline reflects technical breakdowns, fading buyback support, and sector-wide caution. While the protocol’s fundamentals include a deflationary model and revenue-sharing with bonk.fun, unclear tokenomics updates and low liquidity magnify downside risks.

Key watch: Can GP hold the $0.81–$0.85 zone, and will the team clarify tokenomics in its pending whitepaper update?

Deep Dive

1. Altcoin Rotation (Bullish Impact)

Overview:
On 11 August, GP climbed 41.2% to $2.23 amid a market-wide shift favoring smaller alts, as Bitcoin and Ethereum saw profit-taking (CoinMarketCap). The CMC Altcoin Season Index rose 38% monthly, signaling risk-on appetite.

What this means:
GP’s low market cap ($32.7M) and high volatility made it a target for traders rotating out of large caps. This mirrors July patterns where GP surged 109.8% during similar rotations.

What to look out for:
A sustained altcoin season requires Bitcoin dominance (<57.86%) to keep falling.

2. Buyback-Driven Scarcity (Bullish Impact)

Overview:
GP’s protocol burned 4.7% of its total supply on 15 August using revenue from @bonkfun, part of a deflationary model allocating 7.6% of platform fees to buybacks ([MOEWAgent](https://x.com/MOEW_Agent/status/1954798796472463577)).

What this means:
Reducing supply (total: 59.3M) against steady demand can lift prices. The 90-day price surged 640%, partly driven by cumulative burns (2.81% in two months by July).

What to look out for:
Sustainability hinges on @bonk_fun’s revenue, which faces competition from Pump.fun’s resurgence.

3. Technical Breakout (Mixed Impact)

Overview:
GP’s price ($1.05) reclaimed the 7-day SMA ($1.02), while RSI (50.57) suggests neutral momentum. However, it struggles below the 30-day SMA ($1.21), a key resistance.

What this means:
Short-term bullish momentum is confirmed by the MACD histogram turning positive, but the 30-day SMA rejection risks a pullback to $1.08 (Fibonacci 78.6% level).

Conclusion

GP’s rise reflects altcoin season dynamics, deflationary tokenomics, and technical buying. However, its -83% 60-day drop underscores volatility risks. Key watch: Can GP hold above $1.08 Fibonacci support if Bitcoin dominance rebounds?