Graphite Protocol (GP) Price Prediction

TLDR
Graphite Protocol’s price faces a tug-of-war between buyback momentum and meme market fragility.

1. Buybacks & Burns – 7.6% of $BONK fees fuel GP scarcity, but sustainability questions linger.
2. Meme Platform Competition – Bonk.fun’s market share battles Pump.fun, risking revenue volatility.
3. Tokenomics Overhaul – Team’s 10% token relock proposal aims to align incentives, pending execution.

Deep Dive

1. Buyback-Driven Scarcity (Bullish Impact)

Overview:
Graphite Protocol uses 7.6% of fees from Bonk.fun, its flagship meme launchpad, to buy and burn GP tokens. This deflationary mechanism removed 2.81% of supply in two months as of July 2025. Recent transparency updates (e.g., $16.8M treasury) aim to bolster confidence in continued buybacks.

What this means:
Reduced supply could counterbalance selling pressure, especially if Bonk.fun maintains its 80%+ meme market share (GraphiteProto). However, reliance on volatile meme coin activity – down 50% weekly for GP in early August – introduces execution risk.

2. Solana Meme Platform Wars (Bearish Risk)

Overview:
Bonk.fun, powered by Graphite, lost its lead to Pump.fun in August 2025, with daily volume dropping to $34.6M vs. Pump.fun’s $144.5M. GP’s price fell 16.2% in 24 hours post-shift, reflecting sensitivity to platform dominance (Cryptonews).

What this means:
Market share losses could reduce fee revenue for buybacks, pressuring GP’s price. However, Graphite’s expansion into gambling infrastructure and mobile apps (planned Q3 2025) may diversify income streams beyond meme launches.

3. Vesting & Team Token Alignment (Mixed Impact)

Overview:
Graphite proposed relocking 10% of team tokens (originally vested over 3 years) to “align with the community.” The move follows criticism over opaque emissions, addressed partially by a new tokenomics dashboard in August 2025 (GraphiteProto).

What this means:
Successful relocking could reduce sell-side pressure and rebuild trust. However, delayed website launches and initial tokenomics confusion (e.g., rejected drafts in August) highlight governance execution risks.

Conclusion

GP’s price hinges on balancing buyback efficacy against meme market whims, with tokenomics reforms offering a potential stability anchor. Watch Bonk.fun’s weekly revenue – a sustained drop below $20M (from July’s $50M+) could signal deeper headwinds. Can Graphite diversify beyond the meme coin casino before the next Solana narrative shift?