Deep Dive
1. Token Unlock (October 2025)
Overview: Grass’s next major token unlock in October 2025 will release 29% of its total supply (Gate.io). With only 24.4% currently circulating, this could increase sell pressure if demand doesn’t offset new liquidity. The team has emphasized "bonus seasons" to incentivize holding post-unlock.
What this means:
- Bearish risk: Historical unlocks (e.g., May 2025’s 8% drop post-unlock) show sensitivity to supply shocks.
- Bullish angle: Strategic staking rewards and exchange listings (e.g., Kraken, Bybit) could absorb selling pressure.
2. AI Data Marketplace (Q4 2025)
Overview: Grass plans to launch an on-chain marketplace where users directly sell scraped web data to AI labs (Grass Blog). The platform will use zk-proofs to verify data provenance while preserving privacy, targeting enterprises like OpenAI and Anthropic.
What this means:
- Bullish driver: Monetizing Grass’s 3M+ nodes and 1PB/day data capacity could create new revenue streams.
- Risk: Adoption depends on seamless integration with existing AI pipelines and competition from centralized alternatives.
3. Sovereign Data Rollups (2025)
Overview: Building on February 2025’s Sion Upgrade (multimodal data support), Grass aims to deploy custom rollups for verticals like video indexing and real-time news aggregation. This L2 solution targets 10x throughput gains for decentralized web scraping.
What this means:
- Bullish: Enhanced scalability could cement Grass as the DePIN leader in AI data sourcing, now processing 57M+ GB quarterly (CryptoNews).
- Technical risk: Delays in zk-proof optimizations could slow rollout.
4. Grayscale Inclusion (Q3 2025)
Overview: Grayscale added GRASS to its Q3 2025 watchlist for potential trust products, alongside AI tokens like Virtual and Hype (Grayscale Report). Approval would mark its first institutional-grade exposure.
What this means:
- Bullish: ETF-like products could attract conservative capital to Grass’s $211M market cap.
- Neutral: Grayscale’s final decision (pending SEC feedback) remains uncertain.
Conclusion
Grass’s 2025 trajectory hinges on balancing supply shocks from unlocks with AI infrastructure growth. The AI Data Marketplace and rollup upgrades could offset dilution risks by deepening utility. With the broader market in "Fear" (CMC Fear & Greed Index: 34), GRASS’s success may depend on demonstrating real-world AI partnerships.
How will Grass’s decentralized data layer compete with Big Tech’s centralized scraping monopolies?