Deep Dive
1. Upcoming Token Unlocks (Bearish Impact)
Overview:
71% of GRASS’s 1B total supply remains locked, with early investors (252M tokens) and contributors (220M tokens) subject to vesting until October 2025. Historical unlocks in July 2025 saw $100M+ tokens hit markets, correlating with price dips.
What this means:
Post-October, daily selling pressure could increase if holders take profits, especially given GRASS’s -63.8% 90-day return. However, 30% of claimed tokens are currently staked (Grayscale Research), suggesting some holders prioritize network participation over short-term gains.
2. AI Data Utility Growth (Bullish Impact)
Overview:
Grass processes 1.76M TB/day of web data for AI training, with usage up 215% in May 2025 post-Sion Upgrade. The network rewards users for sharing bandwidth, creating a flywheel: more users → better datasets → higher institutional demand.
What this means:
GRASS’s $0.83 price reflects skepticism vs. peak $3.90 (May 2025). Sustained adoption could reactivate bullish momentum, particularly if partnerships with AI firms materialize. Monitor weekly scraped data trends via Grass Foundation.
3. Solana’s Institutional Embrace (Mixed Impact)
Overview:
GRASS benefits from Solana’s low fees and high throughput but competes with 20+ DePIN projects on the network. The $100M Solana acquisition by DeFi Development Corp (Bitcoinist) signals growing institutional interest that could lift ecosystem tokens.
What this means:
GRASS’s success hinges on differentiating its AI data niche from rivals like Helium. A rising SOL tide would help, but failure to scale network efficiency could leave it overshadowed.
Conclusion
GRASS’s price will likely hinge on whether AI data demand outpaces post-unlock selling. The $0.60–$0.85 accumulation zone (CoinMarketCap) suggests traders see long-term value, but October’s unlocks loom.
Critical watch: Can GRASS onboard enterprise clients before vested tokens flood the market?