Latest Harmony (ONE) Price Analysis

Deep Dive

1. Exchange Delistings (Bearish Impact)

Overview: EXMO delisted ONE/USDT on September 12, 2025, citing “performance and compliance” reasons. While withdrawals remain open until September 30, reduced trading access thins liquidity – a red flag for traders.

What this means: Delistings often trigger sell-offs as holders exit positions preemptively. ONE’s 24h volume fell 23.7% to $13.05M, amplifying price sensitivity. With turnover at 9.4% (low liquidity risk), even modest sells can pressure prices.

2. Security Concerns Resurface (Bearish Impact)

Overview: A July 2025 report highlighted North Korea’s $2B crypto thefts in 2025, recalling Harmony’s $100M 2022 bridge hack. Concurrently, the Tornado Cash trial (TokenPost) rehashed links between ONE’s exploit and sanctioned entities.

What this means: Negative headlines revive doubts about protocol security and regulatory risks. While Harmony has since upgraded its infrastructure, the stigma of past breaches weighs on sentiment during market-wide risk aversion (Fear & Greed Index: Neutral 58).

3. Technical Downtrend (Bearish Impact)

Overview: ONE trades at $0.00939, below its 7-day SMA ($0.010056) and 30-day SMA ($0.010112). The RSI-14 at 45.44 shows no oversold bounce, while MACD’s slight positive histogram (+0.000053) lacks conviction.

What this means: Persistent selling below key averages suggests weak holder confidence. A break above the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement ($0.01094) is needed to reverse the trend. Until then, the path of least resistance remains downward.

Conclusion

ONE’s dip reflects a trifecta of reduced exchange support, unresolved security narratives, and technical weakness. While the 24h move is modest, the lack of bullish catalysts and developer traction (GitHub activity down 19.5% YoY per Cointribune) suggests continued underperformance.

Key watch: Can Harmony’s Q3 validator upgrades and BTC yield strategies (targeting 20-30% APRs) regain investor trust? Monitor shard health metrics and exchange liquidity for reversal signals.

Deep Dive

1. Technical Momentum (Bullish Impact)

Overview:
ONE’s price ($0.0103) crossed above its 7-day SMA ($0.0100), while the MACD histogram turned positive (+0.00012681) for the first time since mid-September. The RSI14 (54.09) rebounded from neutral, avoiding oversold conditions.

What this means:
Traders interpreted the MACD bullish crossover as a reversal signal after a 5% dip in September. The lack of resistance until $0.0105 (Fibonacci 23.6% level) allowed room for upside. However, the 200-day EMA ($0.0123) remains a critical hurdle.

What to watch:
A close above $0.0105 could trigger momentum buying, while failure risks a retest of $0.0098 support.

2. BTC Yield Strategy Updates (Bullish Impact)

Overview:
Harmony’s team reported refining BTC liquidity pool (LP) strategies with Hyperliquid hedging, achieving 32%+ APR in live tests.

What this means:
These delta-neutral strategies reduce downside risk while offering yields competitive with DeFi giants like Aerodrome. The progress signals operational competence, attracting capital from yield-focused investors.

What to watch:
Mainnet deployment of these strategies and measurable TVL inflows into Harmony’s DeFi ecosystem.

3. Altcoin Season Tailwinds (Mixed Impact)

Overview:
The CMC Altcoin Season Index rose 17% in 30 days to 62, signaling capital rotation into smaller caps. ONE’s 13% weekly gain outpaced Bitcoin (+1.6%) and Ethereum (+1.9%).

What this means:
ONE benefits from its low market cap ($151M) and high beta to crypto market swings. However, its 24h volume ($10.3M) remains thin, amplifying volatility risks.

Conclusion

Harmony’s uptick reflects technical rebounds, yield innovation, and altcoin momentum – but thin liquidity and reliance on speculative narratives limit sustainability.

Key watch: Can ONE hold above $0.0105 to confirm a breakout, or will fading altseason sentiment trigger profit-taking?