Hedera (HBAR) Price Prediction

Deep Dive

1. ETF Approvals & Regulatory Delays (Mixed Impact)

Overview:
The SEC postponed decisions on Grayscale’s and Canary Capital’s HBAR ETFs until November 2025 (Cointelegraph). The ongoing U.S. government shutdown (since October 1, 2025) has frozen SEC operations, delaying reviews for 90+ crypto ETFs, including HBAR (Yahoo Finance). Analysts estimate a 90% approval chance post-shutdown, given Hedera’s enterprise-friendly governance and compliance focus.

What this means:
Short-term bearish pressure from delayed institutional access, but approval could mirror Bitcoin ETF inflows. HBAR’s price spiked 10% in July 2025 on ETF speculation, showing sensitivity to regulatory cues.

2. Institutional Sentiment & Market Dynamics (Bearish)

Overview:
HBAR fell 6% on October 10, 2025, as institutions sold $30M+ in HBAR during a 3:00 PM liquidation cascade (CoinDesk). Derivatives open interest dropped 16% that week, reflecting risk aversion. However, whale wallets holding 10M+ HBAR grew 1.5% in September, signaling accumulation at lower prices.

What this means:
Institutional exits exacerbate volatility, but long-term holders see $0.18–$0.21 as a buying zone. A break below $0.176 (Fibonacci 61.8% level) risks a 15% drop to $0.15.

3. Ecosystem Growth & Use Cases (Bullish)

Overview:
Hedera’s Q3 2025 partnerships include:
- Reserve Bank of Australia: Testing CBDC interoperability (Hedera).
- Accenture & EQTY Lab: Developing AI audit tools for public-sector compliance.
- SaucerSwap: DeFi TVL surged to $270M, up 88% since July.

What this means:
Real-world adoption strengthens HBAR’s utility demand. Projects like AUDD stablecoin (live in APAC) could drive transaction volume, directly boosting network revenue and staking activity.

Conclusion

HBAR faces near-term headwinds from regulatory delays and institutional selling but retains bullish fundamentals via enterprise adoption and ETF potential. Traders should monitor the SEC’s post-shutdown agenda and HBAR’s ability to hold $0.176 support.

Will Hedera’s ESG-focused tech stack outpace competitors like XRP in institutional corridors?