Hedera (HBAR) Price Prediction

Deep Dive

1. ETF Catalyst Watch (Bullish Impact)

Overview:
The SEC is reviewing spot HBAR ETFs from Grayscale and Canary Capital, with decisions due by November 14, 2025. Analysts (Bloomberg) estimate 90–95% approval odds, mirroring Solana/XRP ETF optimism. Approval would enable pension funds/RIAs to gain regulated exposure.

What this means:
Historically, Bitcoin/ETH ETF approvals drove 20–40% price surges pre-launch. HBAR’s $10B liquidity meets SEC custody standards, but delays beyond Q1 2026 could dampen sentiment.

2. Enterprise vs. Chain Competition (Mixed Impact)

Overview:
Hedera powers Wyoming’s FRNT stablecoin and Apollo’s $50M tokenized credit fund (Weex). However, Solana’s $247B DeFi TVL and Ethereum’s Layer 2 scaling threaten Hedera’s 10K TPS edge.

What this means:
While Hedera’s council (Google/IBM) ensures enterprise credibility, its $168M TVL lags rivals. Price hinges on converting pilot projects (e.g., B4E energy tracking) into recurring revenue streams.

3. Technical & On-Chain Signals (Neutral Impact)

Overview:
HBAR’s golden cross (50-day > 200-day MA) mirrors its 2021 500% rally setup. However, RSI-7D at 56.61 nears overbought territory, while futures open interest ($868M) suggests leveraged speculation.

What this means:
A break above $0.256 (August high) could target $0.30, but cascading liquidations below $0.225 may trigger 15% pullbacks. Monitor the MACD histogram for momentum shifts.

Conclusion

HBAR’s Q4 outlook leans bullish if ETF approvals align with altcoin season tailwinds, though crowded longs and Ethereum’s dominance in RWAs pose risks. Can Hedera’s carbon-negative narrative and sub-$0.001 fees outweigh its slower retail adoption compared to SOL? Watch the SEC’s November 14 deadline and HBAR’s ability to hold $0.225 as a liquidity floor.