Helium (HNT) Price Prediction

TLDR Helium’s price teeters between deflationary mechanics and adoption hurdles.

1. Token Burn Acceleration – $2.3M/month HNT burns from Mobile revenue (Aug 2025) could tighten supply.
2. Halving Aftermath – 50% emission cut (Aug 1) pressures miner incentives but may stabilize long-term supply.
3. DePIN Competition – World Mobile’s drone-based 5G challenges Helium’s decentralized wireless narrative.

Deep Dive

1. Token Burn Mechanics (Bullish Impact)

Overview:
Helium now burns HNT equivalent to 100% of Helium Mobile’s subscriber revenue (~$2.3M/month), per Blockworks. This replaces Nova Labs’ prior revenue retention, directly linking off-chain usage to HNT’s scarcity. Burns occur via Data Credits (DCs), pegged at $0.00001 each.

What this means:
If subscriber growth persists, monthly burns could offset ~0.46% of HNT’s circulating supply annually (based on $27.6M yearly revenue). Combined with August’s halving (annual emissions cut from 15M to 7.5M HNT), HNT could flip net-deflationary by late 2026, creating upward price pressure.

2. Post-Halving Miner Dynamics (Mixed Impact)

Overview:
The August 1 halving slashed Proof-of-Coverage rewards by 50%, prioritizing active Hotspots over passive ones. Over 101,740 hotspots now compete for reduced emissions, while Data Transfer rewards remain usage-driven.

What this means:
Short-term, the halving may trigger miner capitulation – HNT’s price fell 36% pre-event as stakers faced redelegation deadlines. Long-term, leaner emissions could balance supply if network usage (21.47 TB/day) grows. Watch the 30-day circulating supply change post-halving for deflation signals.

3. DePIN Sector Rivalry (Bearish Risk)

Overview:
World Mobile’s stratospheric drones claim 18x cheaper data vs satellites, while Helium’s NYC/Mexico expansions target urban density. However, HNT’s $500M market cap trails DePIN leader Render ($1.1B), per CoinMarketCap.

What this means:
Helium’s reliance on consumer hotspots faces scalability risks against institutional-backed alternatives. Successful Helium Plus Wi-Fi integration (launched July 31) may offset this by onboarding businesses – a key growth metric to monitor.

Conclusion

HNT’s path hinges on balancing deflationary tokenomics with real-world adoption against stiff DePIN competition. While burns and halving structurally favor scarcity, price recovery requires hotspot growth to outpace miner exits. Can Helium’s 1M+ daily users convert telecom partnerships into sustained DC demand, or will dilution from unredelegated veHNT stakers dominate? Track the HNT burn-to-emission ratio and hotspot count trends through Q4 2025.