Helium (HNT) Price Prediction

Deep Dive

1. Tokenomics Shifts (Mixed Impact)

Overview:
The August 2025 halving reduced annual HNT issuance to 7.5M, while 100% of Helium Mobile’s subscriber revenue now burns HNT (~$2.3M/month). However, a “Net Emissions” mechanism re-mints up to 1,643 HNT/day from burns to stabilize rewards, capping deflationary effects.

What this means:
Reduced supply could lift prices if burns outpace emissions, but the emission cap tempers scarcity. Historical post-halving drops (e.g., -36% in July 2025) suggest short-term volatility before equilibrium.

2. Network Growth vs. Competition (Bullish Risk)

Overview:
Helium’s 1.1M daily users and partnerships (AT&T, T-Mobile) validate its DePIN model. However, rivals like World Mobile’s drone-based 5G threaten market share, and hotspot growth slowed to +2,400/week in Q3 2025.

What this means:
Demand for HNT hinges on sustaining >30 TB/day data transfers. Failure to expand beyond current U.S./Mexico strongholds risks stagnation, while success could mirror Solana’s DePIN-driven rallies.

3. Technical & Macro Sentiment (Bearish Near-Term)

Overview:
HNT trades below key SMAs ($2.58 7-day SMA) with RSI at 37 signaling oversold conditions. Crypto-wide fear/greed index sits at “Neutral” (47), and altcoin dominance has dipped 6.94% weekly, reducing risk appetite.

What this means:
Until HNT reclaims $2.74 (23.6% Fib), sellers dominate. A break below $2.27 could trigger a 15% drop to $1.93.

Conclusion

Helium’s future price balances deflationary tokenomics against shaky technicals and sector competition. The halving and burns create structural scarcity, but weak momentum and DePIN rivalry cap upside. Will HNT’s burn rate sustainably exceed 1,643 HNT/day post-halving? Monitor weekly burn data and hotspot growth for directional cues.