Deep Dive
1. Profit-Taking After Rally (Bearish Impact)
Overview: ZEN surged 37% in the past week, driven by momentum from its Base migration and the launch of ZENDEX, a privacy-focused DEX. However, the RSI (14-day) hit 71.24 on October 3, signaling overbought conditions.
What this means: Traders likely locked in gains as ZEN approached key resistance levels, accelerating the sell-off. The 24h trading volume plummeted 42% to $48.8M, reducing market depth and amplifying volatility.
What to look out for: Sustained holding above the 30-day SMA ($7.45) could stabilize prices.
2. Technical Rejection at Key Level (Mixed Impact)
Overview: ZEN retested the 50% Fibonacci retracement level ($8.78) but failed to hold it. The MACD histogram (+0.349) remains bullish, but the price dipped below the 200-day SMA ($8.45), a critical long-term support.
What this means: Short-term traders exited positions after the rejection, while long-term holders face uncertainty. The pivot point at $9.68 now acts as a psychological ceiling.
3. Privacy Sector Volatility (Bearish Impact)
Overview: Privacy coins like Zcash (-6%) and Monero (-8%) also fell, reflecting sector-wide caution. Regulatory scrutiny over privacy tools persists, with the SEC recently dropping cases against Horizen Labs but maintaining a cautious stance.
What this means: ZEN remains vulnerable to broader privacy-sector sentiment shifts. The Altcoin Season Index (62) suggests muted risk appetite for mid-cap alts like ZEN.
Conclusion
ZEN’s drop reflects profit-taking after a parabolic rally, technical resistance, and sector-wide headwinds. While the Base migration and DeFi integration offer long-term upside, short-term volatility may persist.
Key watch: Can ZEN reclaim the $8.78 Fibonacci level, or will it test support at the 30-day SMA ($7.45)? Monitor trading volume and privacy-coin regulatory updates.