Jupiter (JUP) Price Prediction

Deep Dive

1. Token Unlocks: Inflation Risks (Bearish Impact)

Overview:
Jupiter faces recurring token unlocks, with 53.47M JUP (1.75% of circulating supply) releasing on 28 August 2025. Historically, unlocks have pressured prices – JUP dropped 19% after March 2025’s unlock. The Active Staking Rewards (ASR) program recycles unclaimed airdrop tokens to voters instead of burning them, risking inflationary dilution.

What this means:
Increased supply without proportional demand could suppress prices. Stakers may need to accumulate 50% more JUP to offset dilution (MEXC News).

2. Jupiter Lend Launch: Fee Growth Catalyst (Bullish Impact)

Overview:
Jupiter Lend’s private beta (launched 6 August) offers 95% loan-to-value ratios, targeting Solana’s $12B DeFi TVL. Public rollout in late August includes Multiply vaults and partner incentives. The protocol directs 50% of fees to JUP buybacks.

What this means:
If adoption matches Jupiter’s swap volume (80K+ daily trades), fee revenue could counterbalance unlocks. Success hinges on stealing market share from Kamino Finance ($2.67B TVL) (CoinMarketCap Community).

3. Governance Centralization (Mixed Impact)

Overview:
DAO voting is paused until 2026, consolidating decision-making within the core team. While this reduces short-term sell pressure from governance rewards, it has sparked concerns about token utility and decentralization.

What this means:
Centralization may stabilize prices temporarily but risks alienating long-term holders. JUP’s 75% Q1 2025 drop post-unlocks highlights sensitivity to trust issues (CryptoNewsLand).

Conclusion

JUP’s near-term trajectory hinges on whether Jupiter Lend’s fee generation outweighs August’s token unlock. Long-term viability depends on resolving governance concerns and expanding token utility (e.g., fee discounts). Will JUP’s DeFi integration outpace its inflationary mechanics? Monitor Jupiter Lend’s TVL growth post-launch and on-chain staking trends.