Kamino Finance (KMNO) Price Prediction

Deep Dive

1. Token Unlock Overhang (Bearish Impact)

Overview:
On August 30, 2025, 229.17M KMNO (8.81% of circulating supply) were unlocked, allocated to core contributors and advisors. This followed a separate 229M KMNO unlock in late August, collectively representing ~17.6% of circulating supply within a month. Historically, KMNO dipped 6% post-Binance listing in May 2025 after similar unlocks.

What this means:
Near-term selling pressure is likely if recipients liquidate tokens, especially given KMNO’s 18.3% price drop over the past 30 days. However, long-term impact depends on whether unlocked tokens are staked (currently 45% of supply) or sold.

2. Season 4 Rewards & Staking Dynamics (Bullish Impact)

Overview:
Kamino’s Season 4 (August–November 2025) directs 100M KMNO (~3.5% of supply) to users of its Earn Vaults, which saw deposits surge 84.7% to $240M in the first week. Staked KMNO grants APY boosts (e.g., 200% staking → 20% APY multiplier), incentivizing lockups.

What this means:
The program reduces liquid supply by tying rewards to a 6-month vesting period. Deposits’ 55% growth in 24 hours post-launch (Kamino Finance) suggests sustained KMNO utility demand, potentially countering unlock-related sell pressure.

3. Solana DeFi Tailwinds (Mixed Impact)

Overview:
Solana’s TVL hit $10.24B in August 2025, with Kamino capturing 26% of its DeFi market share. The SEC’s August 2025 ruling exempting liquid staking tokens (LSTs) from securities laws boosted SOL (+8%) and protocols like Kamino. However, competition from Jupiter and Orca intensifies.

What this means:
Regulatory tailwinds and integrations (e.g., Bitlayer’s YBTC launch) could drive KMNO adoption, but Kamino must maintain innovation to fend off rivals. Its $4B in assets and zero exploits since 2022 (Kamino Finance) underpin credibility.

Conclusion

KMNO’s trajectory hinges on balancing unlock-driven volatility with organic demand from staking and Solana’s DeFi growth. Watch the KMNO staking ratio – a rise above 50% would signal holder confidence, while a drop below 40% may indicate capitulation. Can Kamino’s product momentum outpace its token supply expansion?