Kamino Finance (KMNO) Price Prediction

Deep Dive

1. Token Unlocks & Supply Dynamics (Bearish Impact)

Overview: A $13.8M KMNO unlock (229.17M tokens) is scheduled for 30 August 2025, releasing tokens to core contributors and investors. This follows a pattern of unlocks that historically pressured prices, such as a 15% drop after May 2025’s Binance listing unlock.
What this means: Increased sell-side liquidity could suppress prices short-term, especially if recipients offload tokens into a market with $7.4M daily volume (MEXC).

2. Season 4 Rewards & RWA Expansion (Bullish Impact)

Overview: Kamino’s Season 4 (launched 7 August 2025) offers 100M KMNO rewards for depositors in Earn Vaults, alongside integrations like tokenized stocks (SPYx, NVDAx) and Bitcoin yield strategies via Bitlayer’s YBTC.
What this means: Higher protocol usage and locked liquidity may offset unlock-driven selling. For example, $240M in Earn Vault deposits generated $500K+ in combined yield and rewards by mid-August (Kamino).

3. Solana’s Regulatory & Competitive Landscape (Mixed Impact)

Overview: Solana benefits from SEC’s August 2025 clarification that liquid staking tokens (LSTs) aren’t securities, boosting ecosystem activity. However, Kamino faces competition from Drift and Marinade in lending and LSTs.
What this means: Regulatory clarity could attract institutional capital, but KMNO must maintain its $4B TVL lead against rivals to sustain valuation (The Block).

Conclusion

KMNO’s price faces near-term headwinds from unlocks but retains upside via yield incentives and Solana’s growth. Watch the 30 August unlock absorption rate and Earn Vault deposit trends to gauge whether demand offsets supply shocks. Can Kamino’s RWA integrations solidify its position as Solana’s DeFi anchor?