Deep Dive
1. Technical Weakness (Bearish Impact)
Overview: KARRAT broke below its 7-day SMA ($0.0391) and 30-day SMA ($0.0455), with the RSI-7 hitting 28.2 – deep in oversold territory. The MACD histogram turned negative (-0.000055), signaling accelerating bearish momentum.
What this means: The breakdown below $0.0375 (July swing low) likely triggered stop-loss orders, exacerbating the selloff. While oversold conditions could support a bounce, the 200-day EMA at $0.0997 remains a distant resistance level.
What to watch: Whether bulls defend the $0.035–$0.036 zone – a failure here risks a retest of the all-time low at $0.0315.
2. Post-Unlock Supply Pressure (Bearish Impact)
Overview: On July 23, KARRAT unlocked 2.07% of its supply (14.7M tokens). While this event occurred 11 weeks ago, unlocked tokens often enter circulation gradually – Millionero noted such unlocks can create multi-week headwinds.
What this means: At current prices, these tokens represent ~$533K of latent sell pressure. With daily volume averaging $1.09M, even partial selling from unlock recipients can disproportionately impact prices.
3. Liquidity Crunch (Mixed Impact)
Overview: KARRAT’s 24h turnover ratio (volume/market cap) sits at 4.23% – below the 5% threshold that typically indicates stable liquidity. Volume fell 9% yesterday despite the price drop, suggesting weak buyer interest.
What this means: Thin order books magnify volatility, allowing modest sell orders to drive outsized moves. However, this also increases the potential for rapid rebounds if bullish catalysts emerge.
Conclusion
KARRAT’s slide reflects technical breakdowns, residual supply pressures, and a liquidity environment prone to volatility. While oversold conditions hint at near-term stabilization, sustained recovery likely requires renewed demand from gaming ecosystem developments like Studio Chain adoption.
Key watch: Can bulls hold $0.035? A close below this level could invite another 10–15% downside.