LayerZero (ZRO) Price Prediction

Deep Dive

1. Stargate Acquisition & Revenue Sharing (Mixed Impact)

Overview: LayerZero’s $110M proposal to acquire Stargate (finalized August 2025) allows STG holders to swap tokens for ZRO at 1:0.08634. Post-merger, 50% of Stargate’s revenue will fund ZRO buybacks for six months, then shift to full buybacks. Stargate generated ~$20M annual fees pre-deal (The Block).

What this means: Short-term bullish due to reduced STG supply and buyback-driven scarcity. However, long-term dilution risk remains if revenue underperforms. ZRO’s 18% surge post-announcement (Aug 2025) shows optimism, but sustainability depends on Stargate’s fee growth.

2. Token Unlocks and Inflation Risk (Bearish Impact)

Overview: 38.3% of ZRO’s 1B supply is allocated to the community, with retroactive claims (8.5%) already distributed. Strategic partners (32.2%) and core contributors (25.5%) face 3-year vesting. Monthly unlocks began in June 2025, with ~573M ZRO still locked as of October 2025.

What this means: Inflationary pressure could escalate as early investors and teams unlock tokens. For context, a 50M ZRO buyback in September 2025 briefly offset selling but didn’t reverse the 30-day -1.45% dip. Monitoring unlock schedules (e.g., June 2026 unlocks) is critical.

3. Cross-Chain Adoption Surge (Bullish Impact)

Overview: LayerZero’s OFT standard powers USDT0 ($869M daily volume) and BOB Gateway (11-chain BTC transfers). Partnerships with Mantle, GMX, and Bitcoin DeFi projects position ZRO as infrastructure for omnichain liquidity (CCN).

What this means: Increased protocol usage directly ties to ZRO’s fee switch governance. If activated, burning transaction fees could deflate supply. The RSI at 62.5 (neutral) and MACD bullish crossover suggest technical upside if adoption accelerates.

Conclusion

ZRO’s trajectory balances merger synergies, unlock overhangs, and DeFi’s omnichain evolution. While Stargate’s revenue could fuel buybacks, inflation from unlocks remains a headwind. Watch for Q4 2025 metrics: Stargate fee growth, ZRO burn rates, and Bitcoin DeFi’s expansion. Will LayerZero’s tech adoption outpace its token supply dynamics?