Deep Dive
1. Technical context
LUIGI trades 70% below its 200D SMA ($0.00369), with the 7D SMA ($0.00129) acting as resistance. The RSI-14 (40.48) shows no oversold signal, leaving room for further downside. MACD (-0.0000856) remains bearish despite a slight histogram uptick. Fibonacci retracement levels suggest next support near $0.001073 (swing low), 6% below current price.
2. Market dynamics
Bitcoin’s dominance rose to 63.01% (up 0.75% weekly), diverting capital from high-risk alts. The CMC Altcoin Season Index (35) remains in "Bitcoin Season" territory, favoring large caps. LUIGI’s -10.98% underperformed the broader crypto market (-1.17%), highlighting memecoin volatility.
3. Tokenomics risks
With 42 quadrillion tokens in self-reported circulation, LUIGI’s $481B self-reported market cap appears inflated. The top 10 holders control 36.06% of supply, creating centralization risks. Turnover (volume/market cap) of 0.000004% confirms extreme illiquidity—$1M selling could erase ~50% of current price.
Conclusion
LUIGI’s drop stems from technical breakdowns, sector rotation into Bitcoin, and inherent memecoin fragility. Watch the $0.001073 Fibonacci swing low—a breach could trigger another 15-20% slide. Could Bitcoin holding 63% dominance through July extend the altcoin squeeze?