Latest Official Melania Meme (MELANIA) Price Analysis

Deep Dive

1. Regulatory Headwinds (Bearish Impact)

Overview:
A bipartisan Senate proposal on September 10 seeks to ban elected officials and their families from endorsing/profiting from digital assets, directly targeting Trump-affiliated tokens like MELANIA. The bill references MELANIA’s 98% crash in June 2025 after insiders dumped $35.7M.

What this means:
Political meme coins thrive on celebrity association – any threat to this narrative weakens demand. MELANIA’s liquidity (24h volume: $14.5M) is insufficient to absorb panic selling triggered by regulatory risks.

What to watch:
Senate vote timeline and amendments to the bill’s crypto provisions.

2. Technical Breakdown (Bearish Impact)

Overview:
MELANIA breached the 50% Fibonacci retracement level ($0.147) and trades below all key moving averages (7-day SMA: $0.17, 30-day SMA: $0.18). The RSI-7 at 16.6 signals extreme oversold conditions but no reversal catalyst.

What this means:
Algorithmic traders likely triggered stop-loss orders below $0.15, accelerating the drop. The next support sits at the 78.6% Fib level ($0.106), but thin order books could lead to slippage.

3. Altcoin Liquidation Spiral (Mixed Impact)

Overview:
Total crypto market cap fell 9.6% in 24h, with altcoins disproportionately hit. MELANIA’s 24h volume surged 177% to $14.5M – a sign of capitulation, not accumulation.

What this means:
High-beta meme coins like MELANIA are first sold in market downturns. However, oversold RSI readings historically precede short-term bounces (e.g., July 2025’s 46% rally after RSI-7 hit 5.75).

Conclusion

MELANIA’s plunge reflects political risks, technical breakdowns, and sector-wide deleveraging. While oversold conditions could invite volatility traders, the token’s lack of utility and regulatory overhang limit upside potential.

Key watch: Senate bill progress and whether MELANIA holds the 78.6% Fib level ($0.106) – a breakdown here risks a retest of its all-time low ($0.0755).

Deep Dive

1. Whale Activity (Bullish Impact)

Overview: On-chain data from Nansen shows whale wallets increased MELANIA holdings by ~4% in the week ending September 13, 2025, coinciding with a 10% price rise. While not directly tied to the 24h move, this trend suggests sustained accumulation by large investors.

What this means: Whale buying reduces circulating supply, creating upward pressure. However, MELANIA’s concentration risk remains high—the top 5 wallets control ~87% of supply (Bitstamp Whitepaper), raising volatility risks if whales exit.

What to look out for: Whale wallet outflows on platforms like Etherscan or Solscan.

2. Technical Rebound (Mixed Impact)

Overview: MELANIA’s 24h rise aligns with bullish technical signals:
- MACD histogram turned positive (+0.0014), indicating strengthening momentum.
- Price ($0.179) crossed above the 7-day EMA ($0.1789), a short-term bullish signal.
- RSI (7-day) at 50.35 suggests neutral conditions, reducing overbought/oversold risks.

What this means: Traders may interpret these signals as a buying opportunity, but the token remains below critical resistance at $0.189 (50% Fibonacci retracement). Weak volume (-3.67% 24h) questions sustainability.

What to look out for: A close above $0.189 could target $0.196 (38.2% Fib), while failure risks a drop to $0.159 (swing low).

Conclusion

MELANIA’s 24h gain reflects a mix of whale-driven demand and technical rebound dynamics, though thin liquidity and high centralization pose risks. Key watch: Can the token hold above its 7-day EMA ($0.1789) amid fading market-wide altcoin momentum?