Merlin Chain (MERL) Price Prediction

Deep Dive

1. Token Vesting Schedule (Bearish Impact)

Overview:
Only 46.6% of MERL’s 2.1B total supply is circulating (Tokenomics). Major allocations like Ecosystem (40%) and Community (16.57%) unlock linearly until 2028, with ~210M tokens entering circulation annually. Private investors (15.23%) and advisors (3%) face multi-year cliffs, creating recurring sell-pressure risks.

What this means:
Near-term price could face headwinds from ~$71M in annual unlocks (at $0.34/MERL). However, sustained ecosystem growth (e.g., grants for dApps) might offset dilution by increasing demand.

2. Bitcoin L2 Adoption & Partnerships (Bullish Impact)

Overview:
Merlin’s August 2025 integration with Sui enabled BTC-backed DeFi yield farming, aligning with its “BTC-only” strategy. The June 2025 mainnet upgrade boosted TPS by 3x and reduced ZK-proof latency (Upgrade details).

What this means:
Growing TVL (peaked at $3.8B) and cross-chain use cases (e.g., M-BTC on Sui) could attract Bitcoin holders seeking yield, driving demand for MERL as a governance/staking asset.

3. Exchange Listings & Market Sentiment (Mixed Impact)

Overview:
MERL’s July 2025 Bithumb listing triggered a 20.5% price surge (Bithumb article). However, the token remains absent from top-tier exchanges like Coinbase. The global crypto Fear & Greed Index is neutral (59/100), suggesting sentiment-driven swings are likely.

What this means:
New exchange listings (e.g., Binance spot) could boost liquidity, but MERL’s 57.6% 24h volume surge (Oct 2025) highlights sensitivity to speculative trading.

Conclusion

MERL’s trajectory depends on balancing unlock-driven supply with Bitcoin L2 adoption. Watch the M-BTC/Sui liquidity growth and Q4 2025 token unlock schedules – success here could cement Merlin as a BTCfi leader, while delays might amplify sell-pressure. How will Bitcoin’s dominance (58.5%) shape capital rotation into L2s like Merlin?