Metaplanet (MTPLF) Price Prediction

Deep Dive

1. Project-specific catalysts

Metaplanet’s BTC accumulation targets (30k BTC by 2025, 210k by 2027) could drive demand if achieved, mirroring MicroStrategy’s playbook. The firm raised $515M via stock sales on June 26, 2025, to fund purchases, but risks include:
- Dilution: Issuing 54M new shares may pressure MTPLF’s price short-term.
- Execution risk: Acquiring 1% of BTC’s supply requires ~$22B at current prices ($107.8k/BTC), far exceeding its current $555M war chest.

The firm’s pivot from hospitality to a BTC-focused treasury (since April 2024) has boosted its stock 353.5% YTD, but recent 12.2% weekly declines suggest profit-taking after rallies.

2. Market & competitive landscape

Metaplanet ranks 5th among corporate BTC holders (12,345 BTC vs. MicroStrategy’s 592,345 BTC), but its strategy depends on Bitcoin’s macro narrative:
- Institutional adoption: Rising BTC ETF AUM ($133B as of June 2025) supports bullish BTC price trends.
- Altcoin season lag: With Bitcoin dominance at 65.03%, capital rotation into “BTC proxy” stocks like MTPLF could slow if altcoins rally.

Conclusion

Metaplanet’s fate is wedded to Bitcoin’s price and its ability to scale BTC holdings without excessive dilution. While its bold 1% supply target could attract speculative interest, execution hurdles and BTC’s volatility pose risks.

Watch this: Can Metaplanet secure additional funding to close the $22B gap in its BTC accumulation goal without further diluting shareholders?