Latest Metaplex (MPLX) Price Analysis

Deep Dive

1. Post-Listing Profit-Taking (Bearish Impact)

MPLX surged 33% to $0.20 after its Coinbase roadmap addition on July 22, but dropped to $0.16 within days as traders cashed out (CoinMarketCap). The pattern repeated after its official listing on July 24, with MPLX falling 6.8% alongside JITOSOL. This aligns with the typical “buy the rumor, sell the news” dynamic in crypto.

What this means: Exchange listings often create short-term volatility. While listings boost visibility, they also attract speculative traders who exit positions quickly, especially after rapid gains.

Key metric to watch: MPLX’s 30-day SMA ($0.238) – a break below could signal deeper corrections.

2. Broader Market Weakness (Bearish Impact)

The total crypto market cap fell 2.32% in 24h (as of September 19, 2025), with altcoins underperforming Bitcoin. MPLX’s 24h trading volume dropped 29.5% to $7.06M, reflecting thinning liquidity.

What this means: MPLX’s high beta (58% 30d gain vs. market’s +2.42%) makes it vulnerable to market-wide pullbacks. The Fear & Greed Index at “Neutral” (52) also suggests cautious risk appetite.

3. Liquidity Incentive Rollover (Mixed Impact)

Metaplex’s “Earn Season 3” program began on July 23, offering staking rewards via Kamino Finance. However, the DAO allocated 2.5M MPLX (1.5M new + 1M from Season 2), diluting per-user rewards week-over-week (Metaplex).

What this means: While the program supports long-term liquidity, reduced incremental rewards may have prompted short-term selling. The RSI-7 (61) suggests cooling momentum after recent overbought conditions.

Conclusion

MPLX’s drop reflects a combination of profit-taking, macro headwinds, and shifting incentives. While its role in Solana’s NFT ecosystem (1M+ tokens minted in June) and buyback program (50% of $2.3M July fees) offer long-term support, short-term traders are reacting to overheated technicals.

Key watch: Can MPLX hold the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level at $0.248? A break below may test $0.216, while reclaiming $0.30 could reignite bullish momentum.

Deep Dive

1. Coinbase Expansion & JPMorgan Partnership (Bullish Impact)

Overview:
MPLX was added to Coinbase’s NY offerings on July 24 and included in a broader JPMorgan Chase partnership announced July 30, enabling Chase credit card rewards to convert into crypto via Coinbase.

What this means:
The Coinbase listing expanded MPLX’s accessibility to millions of users, particularly in tightly regulated markets like NY. The JPMorgan integration signals institutional validation and could drive retail inflows as Chase customers gain frictionless crypto access starting in 2026.

What to look out for:
Trading volume spikes when Chase reward conversions go live and whether MPLX gains inclusion in future institutional crypto products.

2. DAO Buybacks & Protocol Revenue Surge (Bullish Impact)

Overview:
Metaplex DAO allocated 50% of July’s $2.3M protocol fees (highest since Jan 2025) to buy back 6.4M MPLX (~$1.04M at current prices), reducing circulating supply.

What this means:
Monthly buybacks create structural demand, especially as protocol fees grow from Solana’s NFT/token creation activity. The DAO has repurchased 1.5% of total supply since June, tightening sell-side pressure.

What to look out for:
August’s buyback execution (using 50% of July fees) and whether NFT minting activity sustains post-Solana’s 20% block capacity upgrade.

3. Technical Strength vs. Overextension Risk (Mixed Impact)

Overview:
MPLX trades at $0.319, above its 7-day SMA ($0.302) and 30-day SMA ($0.234). The RSI-14 sits at 67.44, near overbought territory (70+).

What this means:
The price is buoyed by bullish momentum, but a pullback could occur if profit-taking accelerates. Immediate support lies at the 23.6% Fibonacci level ($0.323), while resistance is at the July high of $0.368.

Conclusion

MPLX’s rally combines exchange-driven liquidity, deflationary tokenomics, and bullish technicals. However, RSI levels and lawsuit risks (e.g., April 2025 allegations of improper SOL transfers) warrant caution.

Key watch: Can MPLX hold above $0.30 if Bitcoin dominance rebounds from 56.96% amid altcoin season (CMC Altcoin Index: 73)?