TLDR Monero navigates security shocks and market resilience as Qubic’s mining dominance sparks volatility. Here’s the latest: 1. Qubic’s 51% Attack Attempt (20 August 2025) – Mining pool briefly controlled 77% of Monero’s hashrate, triggering price swings. 2. Kraken Halts XMR Deposits (18 August 2025) – Exchange paused deposits amid network instability fears. 3. Price Rebounds from $231 Support (19 August 2025) – Technical recovery despite bearish pressure.
Deep Dive
1. Qubic’s 51% Attack Attempt (20 August 2025)
Overview: Qubic, led by IOTA co-founder Sergey Ivancheglo, claimed control of 77.54% of Monero’s hashrate on 20 August, raising fears of transaction censorship and double-spending. The group previously tested dominance strategies on Monero before shifting focus to Dogecoin.
What this means: This is bearish for XMR because concentrated mining power undermines Monero’s decentralization and privacy guarantees. However, the community swiftly redistributed hashrate to smaller pools like P2Pool, reducing Qubic’s share to 35% by 21 August (CoinDesk).
2. Kraken Halts XMR Deposits (18 August 2025)
Overview: Kraken temporarily suspended Monero deposits on 18 August after detecting abnormal orphan block rates (5 in 24 hours vs. typical 1% baseline). Withdrawals and trading remained active.
What this means: Neutral-to-bearish short-term impact, as exchange caution reflects lingering security risks. However, XMR’s price rebounded 21% post-halt, suggesting market confidence in Monero’s resilience (Bitcoinist).
3. Price Rebounds from $231 Support (19 August 2025)
Overview: XMR surged 15% weekly to $272 after testing the $231 support, with bullish volume rising and RSI recovering from oversold levels. Analysts now eye $344 resistance.
What this means: Bullish technically, but sustainability hinges on resolving Qubic’s mining threats. A break below $231 could reignite selling pressure (Crypto.News).
Conclusion
Monero faces a tug-of-war between Qubic’s disruptive mining experiments and its community’s rapid response to decentralize hashrate. While technical indicators suggest recovery potential, the network’s long-term health depends on maintaining mining diversity. Will Monero’s privacy-first ethos outlast centralized mining threats?
What are people saying about XMR?
TLDR Monero's community balances bullish chart patterns with existential mining centralization fears. Here’s what’s trending:
Qubic's 51% attack threats spark Kraken freeze drama
"We are accumulating hashrate critical mass through incentives... tied to pure economic incentives." – @Qubic (15.2K followers · 482K impressions · 2025-08-04 11:29 UTC) View original post What this means: Qubic's open campaign to control 38% of Monero's hashrate (via Cointelegraph) threatens network decentralization, raising risks of transaction censorship and exchange distrust after Kraken froze deposits on August 17.
"Breakout above $276–$280 range possible with volume confirmation." – @TechnicalTrader (8.3K followers · 127K impressions · 2025-05-04 10:20 UTC) View original post What this means: The 15-minute chart shows a bullish reversal pattern, with XMR testing $269 support – a level reinforced by the 200-day EMA. A close above $280 could invalidate recent bearish momentum.
"XMR: Returns range from ~1× to ~19× by 2030 depending on regulation vs. privacy adoption." – @CryptoOracle (22.4K followers · 891K impressions · 2025-07-07 15:22 UTC) View original post What this means: Analysts diverge wildly, with Kraken modeling $610 (2× returns) vs. Cryptopolitan’s $5,828 target (18×). Regulatory crackdowns on privacy coins create high variance in long-term projections.
Conclusion
The consensus on Monero is mixed, torn between immediate mining centralization risks and long-term privacy value propositions. While technicals suggest a potential rebound to $280, Qubic’s 38% hashrate share and Kraken’s deposit freeze reveal critical vulnerabilities. Watch whether decentralized mining pool P2Pool can maintain >15% network share this week to counterbalance Qubic’s influence – a key test of Monero’s anti-censorship narrative.
What is the latest update in XMR’s codebase?
TLDR Monero's codebase shows active maintenance amid network security challenges.
GUI/CLI Bug Fixes (25 July 2025) – Critical patches for wallet and node stability.
Community-Funded Development (25 July 2025) – Six proposals funded for ecosystem improvements.
Network Vulnerability Fixes (5 April 2025) – Daemon security upgrades against exploits.
Deep Dive
1. GUI/CLI Bug Fixes (25 July 2025)
Overview: Monero released GUI and CLI v0.18.4.1 to address critical bugs affecting wallet synchronization and node connectivity.
The update resolved edge cases where wallets could freeze during large transaction imports and improved error handling for nodes operating in low-bandwidth environments. These fixes are backward-compatible, requiring no user migration.
What this means: This is neutral for Monero because it maintains operational reliability without introducing new features. Users benefit from smoother transactions and fewer disruptions. (Source)
2. Community-Funded Development (25 July 2025)
Overview: Monero’s Community Crowdfunding System approved six proposals, including Feather wallet enhancements and BTCPay Server integration.
Developers like selsta and jeffro256 secured funding for full-time work on core protocol optimizations, while tobtoht focuses on Feather wallet UX upgrades. These initiatives aim to streamline Monero’s privacy tools for broader adoption.
What this means: This is bullish for Monero because sustained developer activity strengthens its privacy infrastructure and ecosystem interoperability. (Source)
3. Network Vulnerability Fixes (5 April 2025)
Overview: A prior daemon update patched vulnerabilities that allowed targeted nodes to crash via malformed P2P requests.
The fixes mitigated risks of network partitioning attacks, which could have temporarily disrupted transaction propagation. Node operators were urged to upgrade within 14 days to avoid service degradation.
What this means: This is bullish for Monero because it demonstrates proactive defense against exploits, though the threat of mining centralization (e.g., Qubic’s 51% attempts) remains a separate challenge. (Source)
Conclusion
Monero continues prioritizing stability and privacy despite external pressures like Qubic’s mining experiments. Recent updates highlight a balance between maintenance and innovation, while community funding ensures developer momentum. Will upcoming protocol changes address mining decentralization without compromising ASIC resistance?
What is next on XMR’s roadmap?
TLDR
Monero's development continues with these milestones:
Seraphis & Jamtis Integration (Q4 2025) – Next-gen transaction protocol and address system for enhanced privacy.
Bulletproofs++ (2026) – Improved zero-knowledge proofs to reduce transaction sizes.
Overview: Seraphis is a new transaction protocol abstraction designed to replace Monero’s current RingCT system, while Jamtis introduces a stealth address format with shorter, user-friendly addresses. This upgrade aims to improve privacy scalability and reduce blockchain bloat. Development is led by community contributors like René Brunner, with testing underway. What this means: Bullish for XMR – enhances usability and privacy, potentially attracting more users wary of traceability. Risks include delayed rollout if audits reveal vulnerabilities.
2. Bulletproofs++ (2026)
Overview: An upgrade to Monero’s Bulletproofs technology, reducing transaction sizes by ~30% and verification times by 40%. Research is ongoing, with a security audit expected in early 2026 (Monero Research Lab). What this means: Neutral-to-bullish – improves network efficiency but faces competition from newer privacy tech. Success depends on seamless integration with existing protocols.
3. Full-Chain Membership Proofs (2025)
Overview: Funded via Monero’s Community Crowdfunding System (CCS), this project aims to create proofs that validate transactions without revealing blockchain data. Currently in development by Luke Parker and team. What this means: Bullish – could streamline light wallets and strengthen auditability. However, complexity might delay implementation beyond 2025.
Conclusion
Monero’s roadmap prioritizes privacy innovation and scalability, with Seraphis/Jamtis and Bulletproofs++ as pivotal upgrades. While these developments reinforce XMR’s leadership in fungibility, execution risks and mining centralization threats (e.g., Qubic’s 38% hashrate share) warrant monitoring. How will these upgrades impact Monero’s adoption amid rising regulatory scrutiny?