Latest Monero (XMR) Price Analysis

Deep Dive

1. Network Security Recovery (Bullish Impact)

Overview: Monero’s price rebounded after the community countered Qubic’s attempt to dominate its mining hashrate. Qubic, a pool linked to IOTA’s co-founder, briefly controlled ~35% of Monero’s network in August, raising fears of a 51% attack. By mid-September, coordinated efforts redistributed mining power to decentralized pools like P2Pool, reducing Qubic’s influence.

What this means: Restored confidence in Monero’s decentralization eased fears of transaction censorship or chain attacks. Kraken resumed XMR deposits/withdrawals after a brief freeze (CoinMarketCap Community), signaling reduced operational risks.

What to look out for: Continued monitoring of mining pool distribution via MoneroBlocks.

2. Technical Breakout (Bullish Impact)

Overview: XMR broke above the $290.71 Fibonacci retracement level (23.6% of its July-August swing), turning former resistance into support. The RSI (14-day: 69.82) shows bullish momentum without overbought extremes, while the MACD histogram (+4.17) confirms upward pressure.

What this means: Short-term traders likely bought the dip after XMR tested the 200-day EMA ($276.35) last week. A close above the 7-day SMA ($278.35) suggests consolidation into a higher range.

Key threshold: A sustained hold above $290 could target $328 (127.2% Fibonacci extension).

3. Altcoin Season Momentum (Mixed Impact)

Overview: The Altcoin Season Index surged 72% in 30 days to 74, indicating capital rotation into smaller cryptos. Monero’s privacy focus aligns with renewed interest in niche narratives, though regulatory risks linger.

What this means: XMR’s 28.2% 30-day gain outpaces Bitcoin (+1.02%) and Ethereum (+1.02%), reflecting demand for uncorrelated assets. However, privacy coins remain vulnerable to exchange delistings (e.g., Bit2Me’s 2024 XMR removal).

Conclusion

Monero’s rebound stems from restored network security, technical buying, and altcoin rotation. While bullish in the short term, monitor mining decentralization progress and trading volumes (up 24.84% to $97.4M) for sustainability.

Key watch: Can XMR maintain momentum above $290 if Bitcoin dominance (56.93%) stabilizes?

Deep Dive

1. 51% Attack Threats (Bearish Impact)

Overview: Qubic, a mining pool led by IOTA co-founder Sergey Ivancheglo, has openly aimed to control Monero’s hashrate since July 2025. By August, Qubic reportedly held ~30% of the network’s mining power, raising fears of a potential 51% attack (Qubic).

What this means: A successful 51% attack could allow transaction reversals or censorship, undermining Monero’s core value proposition: trustless privacy. While Qubic claims its actions are a “stress test,” the uncertainty has spooked investors.

What to look out for: P2Pool’s decentralized mining share (currently <15%) – a rise could counterbalance Qubic’s influence.

2. Exchange Delisting Risks (Bearish Impact)

Overview: Kraken temporarily halted XMR deposits on August 17, 2025, citing security concerns during Qubic’s hashrate surge (Kraken). This follows broader regulatory scrutiny of privacy coins, with Bit2Me and others delisting XMR in 2024.

What this means: Reduced liquidity and accessibility amplify sell-side pressure. Monero’s 24h volume ($74.1M) is down 12.26% week-over-week, signaling thinning market depth.

3. Technical Support Breakdown (Mixed Impact)

Overview: XMR broke below the $269 Fibonacci support level this week, with the 7-day SMA ($269.06) now acting as resistance. The MACD histogram shows bearish divergence (-2.2 vs. -3.46 signal line), but RSI14 (47.2) suggests neutral momentum.

What this means: While oversold conditions could invite short-term buying, the 200-day EMA ($278.29) looms as a key resistance. A sustained drop below $265 risks retesting June’s $233 low.

Conclusion

Monero’s flat price masks structural risks: mining centralization threats and regulatory hostility are eroding confidence, while technicals hint at fragile support. Key watch: Can Monero’s community-driven P2Pool mining share rise above 20% this week to mitigate Qubic’s influence?