Latest Monero (XMR) Price Analysis

Deep Dive

1. Technical Rebound (Bullish Impact)

Overview:
Monero rebounded from oversold conditions, with its 7-day RSI rising from 31 (August 17) to 47.94 (August 23). The MACD histogram turned positive (+2.61), signaling growing bullish momentum.

What this means:
Short-term traders likely bought the dip after August’s 14.77% monthly decline. The price stabilized above $231 support, aligning with Fibonacci retracement levels (38.2% at $297.68).

What to watch:
A sustained break above the 30-day SMA ($283.51) could signal further upside.

2. Mining Centralization Risks Diminish (Mixed Impact)

Overview:
Qubic’s mining pool dominance fell from 51% (August 17) to ~35% after community-led hashrate redistribution to decentralized pools like P2Pool.

What this means:
Reduced risk of 51% attacks eased investor fears. Kraken resumed XMR withdrawals/trading after a brief pause, restoring liquidity. However, Qubic still controls 35% hashrate – above the 33% threshold for chain security risks.

What to watch:
MoneroBlocks data for real-time hashrate distribution updates.

3. Broader Market Tailwinds (Bullish Impact)

Overview:
Total crypto market cap rose 3.81% ($3.98T), with Bitcoin (+3.1%) and Ethereum (+5.2%) leading. Monero’s 4.48% gain slightly outpaced the market.

What this means:
Risk-on sentiment returned as open interest in crypto perpetuals rose 38.42% ($2.44T). Privacy coins benefited from rotation into mid-cap alts (Alt Season Index at 49, +13.95% monthly).

Conclusion

Monero’s rebound combines technical buying, reduced immediate security risks, and broader market optimism. While mining centralization remains a structural concern, short-term sentiment has improved with Kraken’s operational resumption and oversold recovery.

Key watch: Can XMR hold above $269 (200-day EMA) to confirm trend reversal, or will Qubic’s lingering hashrate share trigger new volatility?

TLDR
Monero (XMR) fell 1.46% to $259.62 over 24h, underperforming the broader crypto market (-1.16%). Here are the main factors:

1. Security Fears (Bearish) – Qubic’s 51% attack on Monero resurfaced concerns, with Kraken halting XMR deposits.
2. Technical Breakdown (Bearish) – Failed to hold key support at $269, RSI14 (41.44) signals weak momentum.
3. Market Sentiment (Neutral) – Crypto Fear & Greed Index at 46 (neutral), altcoins broadly under pressure.

Deep Dive

1. Security Concerns from Qubic’s 51% Attack (Bearish Impact)

Overview:
Qubic, led by IOTA co-founder Sergey Ivancheglo, executed a 51% attack on Monero’s network between August 18–20, briefly controlling 77.54% of its hashrate. While Monero’s privacy features remained intact, Kraken temporarily suspended XMR deposits on August 17, citing “ongoing security concerns” (Cryptopotato).

What this means:
- Reduced exchange liquidity (Kraken handles ~5% of XMR volume) amplified selling pressure.
- The attack highlighted centralization risks in Monero’s mining ecosystem, undermining confidence in its “military-grade security” narrative.

What to watch:
- Whether decentralized mining pools like P2Pool regain >15% hashrate share to counter Qubic’s dominance.

2. Technical Weakness at Key Levels (Bearish Impact)

Overview:
XMR broke below critical Fibonacci support at $269 (50% retracement level) and trades below its 30-day SMA ($284.89). The RSI14 (41.44) shows no oversold bounce, while the MACD histogram (+1.64) suggests tentative bullish divergence.

What this means:
- Bears dominate short-term price action, with resistance now at $276 (200-day EMA).
- A close below $258 (June 2025 low) could trigger algorithmic sell orders.

3. Altcoin Sentiment Drag (Neutral Impact)

Overview:
The CMC Altcoin Season Index fell 16% over 30 days to 42/100, signaling capital rotation away from mid-cap coins like XMR. Monero’s 24h volume dropped 31% to $89M, aligning with broader crypto volume declines (-22% spot, -20% derivatives).

What this means:
- XMR faces headwinds from sector-wide risk aversion, compounded by its niche privacy focus.

Conclusion

Monero’s decline reflects a mix of security jitters, technical breakdowns, and weak altcoin sentiment. While the 51% attack’s direct impact was contained, lingering doubts about mining decentralization and exchange support have delayed recovery.

Key watch: Can XMR defend $231 (yearly low) if selling accelerates, or will Qubic’s pivot to Dogecoin relieve pressure? Monitor Kraken’s deposit resumption timeline for liquidity cues.