Deep Dive
1. Technical Overextension (Bearish Short-Term Impact)
Overview: MLC’s 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) sits at 75.93 (CoinMarketCap), above the 70 threshold that typically signals overbought conditions. This follows a 113% 90-day rally.
What this means: High RSI often precedes corrections as traders secure profits. The price briefly tested the Fibonacci 23.6% retracement level ($0.4947) on September 22 but failed to hold, triggering sell orders.
What to watch: A sustained break below $0.48 (7-day SMA) could signal deeper retracement toward $0.444 (38.2% Fib level).
2. Vesting Schedule Concerns (Mixed Impact)
Overview: MLC’s tokenomics include a 3-month cliff post-TGE (June 2024) followed by linear unlocks. While 34% of supply is burned, circulating supply remains at 78M (34% of total).
What this means: Early investors who received 5% tokens at listing may be selling portions as the cliff period ends, creating sell pressure. However, the project’s buyback mechanism (2% of repurchased tokens burned) could counterbalance this long-term.
3. Macro Market Drag (Neutral Impact)
Overview: The total crypto market fell 2.3% in 24h, with Bitcoin dominance rising to 57.7%. The CMC Altcoin Season Index dropped 10% weekly, signaling capital rotation toward safer assets.
What this means: MLC’s -0.9% decline outpaced the market (-2.3%), suggesting relative resilience. However, reduced altcoin liquidity (spot volume down 5.7% monthly) amplifies volatility for low-cap tokens like MLC ($38M market cap).
Conclusion
MLC’s dip appears driven by technical cooling after parabolic gains and sector-wide risk aversion, mitigated by strong tokenomics (burn mechanisms, staking utility). Key watch: Can the 7-day SMA ($0.483) hold as support amid potential vesting-related selling?