Nosana (NOS) Price Prediction

TLDR Nosana’s price faces a tug-of-war between token unlocks and AI compute adoption.

1. Token Unlocks (Bearish) – 62% of supply still vesting, risking sell pressure.
2. AI/DePIN Growth (Bullish) – 2M+ deployments signal product-market fit.
3. Technical Squeeze (Mixed) – MACD bullish, but 200-day EMA looms.

Deep Dive

1. Vesting Schedule & Inflation Risk (Bearish Impact)

Overview:
62% of NOS’s 100M total supply remains locked, including:
- Mining rewards (20%): Linear release over 24 months (ends ~Q3 2026)
- Team/Company (45%): Vesting over 36-48 months (ends 2027-2028)

This creates ~1.04M NOS/month inflation (1.2% of circulating supply) until 2026, rising to ~2.08M/month afterward.

What this means:
Sustained sell pressure could suppress prices unless offset by demand from GPU job payments or staking. Current turnover (3.8%) suggests thin liquidity to absorb large unlocks.

2. Adoption in AI Compute (Bullish Impact)

Overview:
Recent milestones suggest traction:
- 2M+ deployments (as of 11 August 2025) (Nosana)
- Integration into Hivello’s DePIN aggregator, boosting node participation (Hivello)
- Builders’ Challenge yielded 10 new AI agent tools (Nosana)

What this means:
Each job burns NOS (0.000035-0.000097 NOS/sec), creating deflationary pressure as usage grows. If deployment growth sustains 20% MoM, annualized burn could reach 5-10% of circulating supply by 2026.

3. Technical Structure (Mixed Impact)

Overview:
- Bullish: MACD histogram turned positive (0.0045) on 15 August, first since June.
- Bearish: Price ($0.548) below 200-day EMA ($0.845), with RSI 50.83 showing neutral momentum.
- Key levels: $0.532 (Fibonacci 78.6% support) and $0.659 (23.6% resistance).

What this means:
A break above $0.66 could trigger short-covering toward $0.71 (July high), while failure to hold $0.53 risks retesting $0.48 yearly lows. Low liquidity amplifies volatility risk.

Conclusion

Nosana’s price trajectory hinges on whether AI job growth outpaces vesting sell pressure. The 33% discount to 200-day EMA reflects skepticism, but recent MACD flip and developer activity offer contrarian upside. Can Q3 deployment rates sustain above 500K/month to offset unlocks? Monitor weekly burn rate via dashboard.nosana.com/jobs.