Notcoin (NOT) Price Prediction

Deep Dive

1. TON Ecosystem Momentum (Mixed Impact)

Overview: Notcoin’s fate is tied to The Open Network (TON), which powers Telegram’s 900M-user ecosystem. Recent $400M VC inflows into TON projects (CoinMarketCap) and Coinbase Ventures’ rumored interest in TON could boost visibility. However, new TON-based gaming tokens may divert attention from NOT.

What this means: Network effects from TON’s growth might drive demand, but fragmentation risks could dilute NOT’s dominance as the “flagship” gaming token.

2. Technical Battle at $0.0019 (Bearish Risk)

Overview: NOT has tested the $0.0019 support 14 times since June 2025, per CoinGlass data. A breakdown here could trigger $1.17M in long liquidations, while holding might fuel a squeeze toward $0.0025 resistance. The MACD histogram (-0.0000068) shows bearish momentum easing, but RSI (49) lacks conviction.

What this means: Thin liquidity near current levels amplifies volatility – a close below $0.0019 could accelerate declines by 15-20%, while holding may invite short-term speculators.

3. Social-Fi Saturation (Bearish Risk)

Overview: Competitors like Tapzi are launching skill-based alternatives to NOT’s tap mechanics, targeting its 35M-user base. NOT’s daily active wallets dropped 22% in August (CryptoNewsLand), signaling fatigue with simplistic models.

What this means: Without gameplay evolution (e.g., staking mini-games or DeFi integrations), NOT risks becoming a “viral ghost” – widely held but rarely used.

Conclusion

Notcoin’s path hinges on whether it evolves beyond its tap-to-earn origins amid TON’s expansion. The $0.0019-$0.0021 zone is critical this week, with a breakdown likely triggering panic sells. Long-term viability depends on converting casual tappers into engaged ecosystem participants.

Will TON’s infrastructure upgrades outpace user attention spans?