Latest OFFICIAL TRUMP (TRUMP) Price Analysis

Deep Dive

1. Token Unlock Sell Pressure (Bearish Impact)

Overview: A 50M TRUMP token unlock (25% of circulating supply at the time) occurred on July 18, 2025, worth ~$520M. While some unlocks were absorbed initially, residual selling pressure persists as early investors/tactical holders offload tokens.

What this means: Increased supply without proportional demand drives price erosion. TRUMP’s turnover ratio (12.8%) signals high liquidity but reflects weak buying conviction to counter sell orders. Historical patterns show Trump-themed tokens often face post-unlock declines (e.g., -85% from January 2025 peak).

What to watch: Wallet activity of unlock recipients (e.g., 34/220 top holders sold post-May 2025 “VIP dinner” event).

2. Technical Breakdown (Mixed Impact)

Overview: TRUMP broke below the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement ($8.52) and pivot point ($8.42), with RSI (44.7) hovering near oversold territory. The 200-day SMA ($10.72) remains a distant resistance.

What this means: Short-term traders likely exited near $8.40–$8.50 levels, accelerating the dip. However, oversold conditions could invite opportunistic buying if $8.07 swing low holds.

Key level: A sustained close below $8.07 risks retesting the yearly low of $7.14 (April 2025).

3. Muted Response to Tron Integration (Bearish Impact)

Overview: Justin Sun’s July 9 pledge to buy $100M TRUMP and its July 24 Tron blockchain launch failed to spark rallies. TRUMP remains 89% below its ATH ($75.35).

What this means: Markets likely priced in the Tron news early, and skepticism persists about Sun’s ability to single-handedly reverse TRUMP’s macro downtrend. Regulatory risks (SEC scrutiny of Trump-linked projects) further dampen institutional interest.

Conclusion

TRUMP’s decline reflects supply glut post-unlock, technical breakdowns, and fading hype around partnership news. While oversold conditions may invite volatility-driven bounces, the token’s heavy reliance on political sentiment and celebrity endorsements leaves it vulnerable to abrupt sell-offs.

Key watch: September 1 WLFI token unlock – if Trump-affiliated entities liquidate holdings to fund WLFI positions, TRUMP could face renewed pressure.

Deep Dive

1. WLFI Token Unlock Momentum (Mixed Impact)

Overview:
The Trump-linked WLFI token began unlocking on September 1, releasing 20% of its initial supply (Weex). While WLFI is a separate project, its launch may have indirectly reignited speculative interest in Trump-branded crypto assets like TRUMP.

What this means:
The unlock could signal broader adoption of Trump-affiliated tokens, but TRUMP’s own supply dynamics remain strained. TRUMP’s circulating supply surged 25% after its July 18 unlock, contributing to an 85% price drop since January. Short-term traders may be front-running WLFI’s unlock narrative despite TRUMP’s fundamental challenges.

What to look out for:
WLFI’s price action post-unlock and whether inflows spill over into TRUMP.

2. Technical Support Holding (Bullish)

Overview:
TRUMP found support near its pivot point of $8.37, aligning with Fibonacci retracement levels (78.6% at $8.52). The RSI (44) suggests neutrality, avoiding oversold territory.

What this means:
The stabilization reflects reduced selling pressure after July’s unlock-driven crash. A break above the 7-day SMA ($8.44) could signal short-term bullish momentum, though the 30-day SMA ($8.86) remains a key resistance level.

3. Political Sentiment Shift (Neutral)

Overview:
Trump reiterated TRUMP’s role as a “barometer for public opinion on leadership” (Weex), framing the token as a political proxy.

What this means:
While this narrative attracts speculative traders, TRUMP’s price remains 88% below its January peak. Political developments (e.g., policy announcements) could drive volatility, but the token lacks intrinsic utility beyond sentiment-driven trading.

Conclusion

TRUMP’s minor rebound reflects technical stabilization and spillover interest from WLFI’s unlock, but its long-term trajectory remains burdened by high supply inflation and reliance on political hype. Key watch: Can TRUMP hold above $8.37, or will renewed selling pressure from WLFI’s unlock dominate?