What could affect ONDO’s future price?

Question

Accepted Answer

## TLDR  
Ondo’s price trajectory hinges on tokenization adoption, supply dynamics, and regulatory shifts.

1. **Token unlocks (Bearish risk)** – 85% of supply remains locked, with gradual unlocks through 2029.  
2. **RWA dominance (Bullish)** – Controls 42% of tokenized stocks and $1.4B in Treasuries.  
3. **ETF momentum (Mixed)** – 21Shares’ pending SEC decision could amplify institutional flows.

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## Deep Dive  
### 1. Supply Unlocks & Inflation Risk (Bearish Impact)  
**Overview:**  
Over 85% of ONDO’s 10B max supply is locked, with scheduled unlocks for private investors (12.9% of supply) starting in 2026 and core contributors (33%) from 2027. While the 2025 circulating supply is stable (~3.16B), future unlocks could pressure prices if demand doesn’t scale proportionally.

**What this means:**  
Historical unlocks (e.g., Jan 2025’s 1.9B token release) caused 15-20% price dips. Sustained sell pressure from early investors post-2026 could cap upside unless offset by accelerated RWA adoption ([Ondo Foundation](https://blog.ondo.foundation/unlocking-ondo-a-proposal-from-the-ondo-foundation)).

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### 2. Real-World Asset Tokenization Growth (Bullish Impact)  
**Overview:**  
Ondo dominates tokenized Treasuries ($1.4B TVL) and equities ($302.9M), with recent expansions into ETFs/stocks via Ondo Global Markets. Partnerships with Ripple (XRP Ledger integration) and JPMorgan (cross-chain settlements) signal institutional trust.

**What this means:**  
Tokenized assets are projected to hit $53B by 2025 – Ondo’s first-mover advantage in compliant infrastructure could drive revenue-linked demand for ONDO. Recent 97% monthly TVL growth ([RWA.xyz](https://www.cryptotimes.io/2025/10/02/ondo-global-markets-surpasses-300m-in-tokenized-equity-stocks/)) supports this thesis.

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### 3. Regulatory Catalysts & ETF Sentiment (Mixed Impact)  
**Overview:**  
21Shares’ proposed ONDO ETF (pending SEC review) and the GENIUS Act’s pro-tokenization stance could legitimize RWAs. Conversely, strict custody rules or delays might slow institutional participation.

**What this means:**  
ETF approval could mirror Bitcoin’s 2024 ETF-driven rally (ONDO +65% post-filing in July 2025). However, regulatory ambiguity around tokenized securities remains a headwind, especially with 95% of tokenized stocks controlled by Ondo and Backed ([Animoca](https://crypto.news/tokenized-stock-market-dominated-by-only-two-players/)).

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## Conclusion  
Ondo’s price will likely oscillate between RWA adoption tailwinds and unlock-driven supply shocks. The 2026-2027 unlock cliff and ETF decision are critical inflection points. Watch for sustained TVL growth above $2B and SEC filings – will institutions treat ONDO as a proxy for tokenization’s rise, or will dilution outweigh utility?

Ondo (ONDO) Price Prediction

TLDR

Deep Dive

1. Supply Unlocks & Inflation Risk (Bearish Impact)

2. Real-World Asset Tokenization Growth (Bullish Impact)

3. Regulatory Catalysts & ETF Sentiment (Mixed Impact)

Conclusion

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