What could affect ONDO’s future price?

Question

Accepted Answer

## TLDR  
ONDO's price outlook hinges on tokenization adoption, regulatory shifts, and supply dynamics.

1. **RWA Sector Growth** – $25B+ market expansion could drive demand for Ondo’s tokenized assets.  
2. **ETF & Regulatory Catalysts** – Pending 21Shares ETF approval and U.S. policy clarity may attract institutions.  
3. **Token Unlocks** – 85% of supply remains locked, with strategic unlocks posing dilution risks through 2028.

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## Deep Dive  
### 1. **Real-World Asset Adoption (Bullish Impact)**  
**Overview:** Ondo dominates tokenized U.S. Treasuries with $1.38B TVL ([CertiK](https://phemex.com/news/article/certik-report-rwa-market-surges-to-26-billion-by-mid2025_15701)). Its partnerships with BlackRock, J.P. Morgan, and Solana Foundation aim to bridge TradFi liquidity with DeFi via products like USDY and Ondo Chain. The RWA market grew 260% YTD to $24B, with projections up to $30T by 2030 ([Bitrue](https://www.bitrue.com/blog/top-rwa-crypto-september-2025)).

**What this means:** Institutional demand for yield-bearing RWAs could boost ONDO’s utility as a governance token. However, competition from Chainlink (LINK) and Maple Finance (SYRUP) may cap upside if Ondo loses market share.

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### 2. **Regulatory & ETF Developments (Mixed Impact)**  
**Overview:** The 21Shares Ondo Trust ETF filing ([Coinspeaker](https://www.coinspeaker.com/spot-ondo-etf-to-hit-markets-soon-21shares-sudden-filing/)) seeks SEC approval to track ONDO’s price. Meanwhile, the White House’s 2025 Digital Asset Report highlighted Ondo’s role in compliant tokenization, signaling political tailwinds.

**What this means:** ETF approval could mirror Bitcoin ETF inflows, but delays or rejections might trigger volatility. Regulatory clarity on RWAs remains critical – favorable policies would strengthen Ondo’s institutional pipelines.

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### 3. **Tokenomics & Supply Risks (Bearish Impact)**  
**Overview:** 85% of ONDO’s 10B max supply is locked, with unlocks peaking in 2026-2028 ([Ondo Foundation](https://blog.ondo.foundation/unlocking-ondo-a-proposal-from-the-ondo-foundation)). Private investors (12.9% of supply) face 12-month cliffs, while Ecosystem Growth tokens (52.1%) unlock progressively.

**What this means:** Strategic unlocks could align long-term incentives, but accelerated selling by early backers (e.g., CoinList purchasers) might pressure prices. Current circulating supply is 3.16B (31.6% of total), leaving room for dilution.

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## Conclusion  
ONDO’s price will likely oscillate between RWA adoption tailwinds and token supply headwinds. Short-term technicals favor upside (RSI 65.52, bullish MACD), but watch the $1.05 Fibonacci resistance. Long-term, regulatory milestones and institutional inflows via ETFs could outweigh dilution risks.

**Key question:** Will the 21Shares ETF approval timeline align with ONDO’s next unlock phase in Q4 2025?

Ondo (ONDO) Price Prediction

TLDR

Deep Dive

1. Real-World Asset Adoption (Bullish Impact)

2. Regulatory & ETF Developments (Mixed Impact)

3. Tokenomics & Supply Risks (Bearish Impact)

Conclusion

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