PAX Gold (PAXG) Price Prediction

Deep Dive

1. Gold Price Volatility & Macro Risks (Mixed Impact)

Overview: PAXG’s value is pegged to physical gold, making it sensitive to gold’s price swings. Recent U.S. tariffs on imported gold bars (August 2025) briefly spiked gold futures to $3,534/oz, lifting PAXG. However, geopolitical tensions and interest rate shifts remain key drivers. Gold’s 45% annualized volatility (2024–2025) underscores PAXG’s exposure.
What this means: Bullish if recession fears or inflation resurface, but PAXG could lag if gold’s rally stalls. Monitor COMEX gold futures and Fed rate decisions for directional cues.

2. Competition in Tokenized Gold (Bearish Impact)

Overview: Tether’s XAUT surpassed PAXG as the largest tokenized gold asset by market cap in August 2025 after minting $437M in tokens. XAUT’s holder count grew 173% YTD vs. PAXG’s 29%, per CEX.io. PAXG’s regulatory edge (NYDFS oversight) and redeemability for LBMA bars remain strengths.
What this means: PAXG risks losing market share if XAUT’s liquidity and exchange listings expand. However, Paxos’ institutional trust (backed by PayPal Ventures) could buffer outflows.

3. RWA Tokenization Growth (Bullish Impact)

Overview: The tokenized gold sector hit $26B in mid-2025, with PAXG among top protocols (CertiK). BlackRock’s BUIDL fund ($2.88B AUM) and Ondo Finance’s growth signal institutional demand for gold-linked RWAs.
What this means: Broader RWA adoption could drive PAXG’s utility as a collateral asset in DeFi. Watch for integrations with lending platforms like Aave, which proposed XAUT support.

Conclusion

PAXG’s price will mirror gold’s macro narrative but faces pressure from XAUT’s rise. Its regulated structure and RWA tailwinds offer stability, while competition demands faster innovation. Will PAXG’s redemption feature and LBMA backing outweigh XAUT’s aggressive growth? Track holder growth and exchange liquidity ratios for clues.