PAX Gold (PAXG) Price Prediction

Deep Dive

1. Macro Drivers & Gold Prices (Bullish Impact)

Overview:
PAXG tracks physical gold, which surged 47% YTD to $3,800/oz (as of 29 Sep 2025) amid Fed rate cut bets, dollar weakness, and geopolitical risks. Tokenized gold’s market cap hit $2.88B, with PAXG capturing $1.15B (TokenPost).

What this means:
Gold’s rally directly lifts PAXG’s floor, but a Fed pivot or dollar rebound could trigger profit-taking. PAXG’s 90-day price rise (+16.46%) aligns with gold’s momentum, suggesting macro trends remain pivotal.

2. Regulatory Clarity & RWA Adoption (Mixed Impact)

Overview:
SEC Commissioner Hester Peirce signaled openness to tokenized assets (30 Sep 2025), potentially easing PAXG’s path for institutional use. However, PAXG faces rivalry from Tether’s XAUT, which saw $437M minted in August alone (CoinDesk).

What this means:
Regulatory greenlights could spur PAXG’s ETF-like growth, but XAUT’s aggressive expansion (173% holder growth in 2025 vs. PAXG’s 29%) risks dilution. PAXG’s NYDFS-regulated status offers trust, yet scalability lags.

3. Technical Overextension & Profit Risks (Bearish Near-Term)

Overview:
PAXG’s RSI hit 78.7 daily (23 Sep 2025), signaling overbought conditions. While its 200-day EMA ($3,338) supports bullish structure, resistance looms at $3,905 (Fibonacci extension) (Finbold).

What this means:
Short-term corrections are likely if gold stabilizes, but PAXG’s +15.8% 60-day gain reflects strong holder conviction. Watch $3,600 support for trend validation.

Conclusion

PAXG’s fate ties to gold’s macro narrative and its ability to outpace rivals in the $2.9B tokenized gold race. While Fed dovishness and DeFi adoption (e.g., Aave’s XAUT/PAXG collateral proposals) offer upside, overbought signals and XAUT’s momentum demand caution.

Will PAXG’s institutional trust outweigh Tether’s aggressive minting? Track monthly attestations and on-chain holder growth for clues.