Pendle (PENDLE) Price Prediction

Deep Dive

1. Protocol Expansion (Bullish Impact)

Overview: Pendle’s TVL surged from $230M (2023) to $10B+ by August 2025, driven by yield tokenization for assets like Ethena’s USDe (60% of TVL). The Boros upgrade targeting perpetuals’ $150B funding-rate market and Citadels’ KYC-compliant yield products for institutions could unlock new demand. Multi-chain expansion to Solana and HyperEVM boosted TVL by $515M in 2.5 weeks.

What this means: Each 10% TVL growth historically correlated with 6-8% PENDLE price appreciation. Institutional adoption via Citadels may reduce retail-driven volatility while creating buy pressure for governance rights.

2. Whale Supply Risks (Bearish Impact)

Overview: 87% of PENDLE supply is held by top wallets, including a project-linked multisig that moved $4.65M to Binance in August 2025. 37% of tokens remain locked until 2026 emissions taper, with 2% annual inflation post-2026.

What this means: Concentrated ownership amplifies sell-off risks during unlocks or profit-taking. The August 11 unlock saw 900K PENDLE ($4.3M) hit markets, contributing to September’s 11% price drop. Sustained unlocks could pressure the $4.35 Fibonacci support.

3. Altcoin Season Dynamics (Mixed Impact)

Overview: The Altcoin Season Index sits at 70 (neutral), while BTC dominance holds at 57.75%. Pendle’s 43% 90-day gain outpaces ETH (-11%) but lags sector leaders like ENA (+210%).

What this means: A break above the 70 index threshold could funnel capital into mid-cap DeFi tokens. However, PENDLE’s 0.71 BTC correlation means Bitcoin sell-offs may override protocol-specific gains.

Conclusion

Pendle’s price trajectory hinges on balancing institutional adoption against whale sell pressure and macro rotations. The $4.35-$5.25 range will test whether Boros-driven TVL growth can offset unlock risks. Can Pendle’s RWA integrations offset Bitcoin’s gravitational pull on altcoins? Monitor weekly exchange net flows and Citadels’ launch traction.