Latest Pi (PI) Price Analysis

Deep Dive

1. Ecosystem Momentum (Mixed Impact)

Overview: Pi Network announced Protocol v23 upgrades on September 3, including PiOnline – a gaming/DeFi hybrid platform with staking rewards and DAO governance. Mining rates were reduced to 0.0067 Pi/hour (down 15% since August), tightening supply.

What this means: While the updates aim to boost utility, Pi’s price remains 80% below its 2024 peak ($3.00). The 0.22 turnover ratio (volume/market cap) suggests weak liquidity, making rallies vulnerable to sell-offs.

Watch: Adoption metrics for PiOnline’s Genesis Farm and whether it drives meaningful Pi token burns.

2. Swapfone Listing (Bullish Catalyst)

Overview: Pi was listed on Swapfone (U.S.-regulated exchange) on August 25, enabling direct purchases via Alipay/GCash. PI/USDS trades at $0.3738 (+5.02% since listing), with 200 Pi airdrops to new users.

What this means: The listing improves accessibility for 60M+ Pi users, but volumes remain thin ($43M 24h volume vs. $140M peak). Pi still lacks Binance/Coinbase listings, limiting upside.

Watch: Swapfone’s September token unlock (149.5M Pi) – if absorbed without price drops, could signal demand.

3. Technical Rebound (Neutral)

Overview: PI broke above its 7-day SMA ($0.347) but remains below the 30-day SMA ($0.366). The MACD histogram turned positive (+0.00098) for the first time since August 28, while RSI (42.77) exited oversold territory.

What this means: Short-term momentum favors bulls, but the descending triangle pattern since July warns of downside risks below $0.322.

Key level: A close above $0.359 (Fibonacci 23.6%) could target $0.381 (38.2%).

Conclusion

Pi’s 24h gain reflects a mix of cautious optimism around ecosystem upgrades and exchange traction, countered by persistent liquidity challenges. While MACD signals a potential trend reversal, the broader bearish structure and high circulating supply (8B+ tokens) limit upside.

Key watch: Can PiOnline’s user engagement offset September’s token unlocks? Monitor Swapfone volumes and protocol-level KYC adoption for clues.

Deep Dive

1. Token Unlock Pressure (Bearish Impact)

Overview: A 149.5M PI token unlock in September 2025 – equivalent to ~1.87% of circulating supply – has reignited concerns about inflationary sell pressure. Historical unlocks (e.g., May 2025’s 72M PI release) preceded 53% monthly declines.

What this means: Unlocks expand supply without proportional demand, especially problematic given Pi’s low turnover ratio (0.0072 vs. BTC’s 0.03). Weak liquidity magnifies downside risks when large holders exit.

What to look out for: Exchange inflow spikes via wallets like GABT7EMP…4GC5G (PiScan), which moved 12M PI during May’s unlock.

2. Ecosystem Growth vs. Speculation (Mixed Impact)

Overview: Pi Network launched PiOnline, a gaming ecosystem with DeFi elements, and partnered with Onramp Money for fiat access in 60+ countries. However, PI’s price (-13% weekly) diverges from these developments.

What this means: While ecosystem expansion could boost long-term utility, markets remain skeptical due to Pi’s history of delayed mainnet milestones and centralized node control (96.37% of PI held by top wallets). The lack of major exchange listings (e.g., Binance) compounds liquidity issues.

3. Technical Weakness (Bearish Impact)

Overview: PI broke below the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level ($0.359) and shows bearish MACD divergence. The RSI (43.58) hovers near oversold territory but lacks bullish reversal signals.

What this means: The breakdown invalidates July’s double-bottom pattern, with $0.322 now acting as critical support. A close below this level could trigger algorithmic selling toward $0.30.

Conclusion

PI’s decline reflects a trifecta of unlock-driven supply shocks, muted reaction to ecosystem updates, and deteriorating technicals. While the $0.32–$0.33 zone offers short-term support, reclaiming $0.375 is crucial to stem bearish momentum.

Key watch: Can Pi Network’s Token2049 sponsorship (October 2025) catalyze exchange listings or institutional interest to counterbalance unlock risks?