Latest POL (prev. MATIC) (POL) Price Analysis

Deep Dive

1. Token Migration Nears Completion (Bullish)

Overview: 97.83% of MATIC holders have upgraded to POL as of August 20, 2025 (@0xPolygon). This reduces legacy token sell pressure and consolidates POL’s utility as Polygon’s primary gas/staking token.

What this means: Fewer circulating MATIC tokens lower dilution risks for POL, while the upgrade incentivizes long-term holding for staking rewards and ecosystem airdrops (e.g., Katana and Miden).

What to look out for: Final migration metrics and whether remaining MATIC liquidity migrates organically or triggers volatility.

2. DeFi TVL Hits 2025 High (Bullish)

Overview: Polygon’s Total Value Locked (TVL) surged 43% YTD to $1.23B, driven by QuickSwap (+13.4% inflows) and Polymarket (+30.2% inflows) (CoinJournal). Stablecoin activity also hit records, with $2.56B in July payments.

What this means: Rising TVL signals renewed institutional and retail trust, particularly for real-world asset (RWA) use cases. Higher network usage typically correlates with demand for POL as gas fees and staking collateral.

3. Technical Breakout Potential (Mixed)

Overview: POL trades at $0.28, above its 30-day SMA ($0.2579) but facing resistance near the 23.6% Fibonacci level ($0.2795). The RSI-14 (56.61) suggests neutral momentum, while the MACD histogram (-0.0011) hints at short-term bearish divergence.

What this means: Bulls need a decisive close above $0.2795 to target $0.295 (August swing high). Failure could retest support at $0.2318–$0.2264, a zone that triggered three rallies since August.

Conclusion

POL’s gains reflect progress toward full token migration, surging DeFi activity, and cautious technical optimism. However, repeated tests of the $0.23–$0.22 support zone risk exhausting buyer momentum if fundamentals stall.

Key watch: Can POL hold above its 30-day SMA ($0.2579) through the weekend, or will profit-taking erase recent gains? Monitor migration completion rates and TVL trends for confirmation.

Deep Dive

1. Liquidity Outflows (Bearish Impact)

Overview: On-chain data shows $263K in POL sold on spot exchanges over 24h, alongside $9.88M in derivatives open interest closed (AMBCrypto). This follows a trend of declining weekly active addresses (2.2M vs. 3.16M peak).

What this means: Sustained selling across spot and derivatives markets increases token supply pressure. Weak on-chain activity (99K new users) reduces organic demand, creating a liquidity imbalance.

Key watch: Polygon’s demand zone at $0.226–$0.232 – a fourth retest could trigger breakdown risks.

2. Technical Downtrend (Bearish Momentum)

Overview: POL trades below its 7-day SMA ($0.273) with a bearish MACD crossover (histogram: -0.000957). The RSI (53.75) shows neutral momentum but lacks bullish conviction.

What this means: Traders are pricing in short-term weakness after POL failed to hold the $0.26–$0.27 resistance zone. The MACD divergence suggests fading momentum, potentially extending losses toward the 200-day SMA ($0.224).

Key watch: A close above the 30-day SMA ($0.257) could signal trend reversal.

3. Layer 2 Competition (Mixed Impact)

Overview: Polygon’s TVL ($1.23B) trails Base ($5.14B) and Arbitrum ($3B), per CoinJournal. While stablecoin usage hit record highs ($2.56B in July), newer chains are capturing developer activity.

What this means: Market share shifts to rivals may weigh on long-term POL utility narratives. However, Polygon’s institutional partnerships (Starbucks, Disney Metaverse) and 97% MATIC→POL migration completion provide fundamental support.

Conclusion

POL’s dip reflects short-term liquidity pressures and technical headwinds, though its established ecosystem and upgrade progress ($0.001 gas fees, 1K+ TPS) offer counterbalance. Key watch: Can POL hold the $0.23 support zone, or will competitive L2 outflows drive further downside?