Pump.fun (PUMP) Price Prediction

Deep Dive

1. Project Ascend Upgrade (Mixed Impact)

Overview: September's "Project Ascend" introduced tiered fees (higher for low-cap coins) and 10x faster creator payouts. This follows a 72% revenue drop in late September (AMBCrypto).

What this means: While designed to attract higher-quality projects, the changes coincide with plunging platform activity – new token launches fell 76% (286 → 70 "graduated" tokens) since August. Success depends on reversing creator exodus to rivals.

2. Memecoin Launchpad Wars (Bearish Impact)

Overview: Pump.fun’s dominance in Solana memecoin launches has eroded from 84% to 51.4% market share since July (Cryptonews). BonkFun now processes $95M weekly volume vs. PUMP’s $669M.

What this means: Platform revenue – PUMP’s primary value driver – faces structural pressure. Weekly bonding curve volumes fell below $1B for first time since March 2025, signaling sector-wide fatigue with low-quality meme coins.

3. Legal & Reputational Risks (Bearish Impact)

Overview: A $5.5B class-action lawsuit filed in July 2025 alleges Pump.fun operates an "unlicensed casino" via rapid token launches (CoinMarketCap). Concurrently, offensive meme coins on the platform drew criticism from Ethereum’s Vitalik Buterin.

What this means: Regulatory scrutiny could force KYC/AML measures, undermining Pump.fun’s permissionless ethos. Platform revenue already fell 72% YoY despite PUMP’s 60% 30-day price gain, suggesting decoupling from fundamentals.

Conclusion

PUMP’s price hinges on whether Project Ascend can reignite platform growth before legal/competitive pressures intensify. While the token’s 116% 60-day rally shows speculative interest, declining protocol revenue (-72%) and user activity (-70% new tokens) reveal underlying weakness.

Key question: Can Pump.fun’s revamped fee structure attract serious builders rather than quick-flip meme artists, or will the platform remain a regulatory target? Monitor weekly “Tokens Graduated” count and lawsuit developments.