Latest Radiant Capital (RDNT) Price Analysis

Deep Dive

1. Exploiter Activity Amplifies Sell Pressure (Bearish Impact)

Overview: On September 28, the Radiant Capital attacker converted 14M DAI to 3,490 ETH and laundered 2,243 ETH via TornadoCash (PANews). This follows months of strategic ETH/DAI swaps by the hacker, who turned a $53M 2024 exploit into ~$95M through Ethereum trades.

What this means: Repeated asset movements signal unresolved security risks and potential market-dumping scenarios. Investors interpret this as a liability, especially with $42.18M in DAI/ETH still held by the hacker. The use of TornadoCash obscures tracking, heightening uncertainty.

What to watch: On-chain monitoring for large RDNT/ETH transfers to exchanges, and progress on Radiant’s remediation plan (first payouts planned for Q4 2025).

2. Technical Breakdown (Bearish Impact)

Overview: RDNT trades at $0.0145, below critical SMAs (7-day: $0.0203, 30-day: $0.0207). The MACD histogram (-0.0002) and RSI7 (24.4) confirm bearish momentum, while the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement ($0.0199) acts as stiff resistance.

What this means: Technical traders see no immediate support until the 2025 low of $0.00537. The 24h volume surge (+16.8% to $34.4M) suggests capitulation, with turnover (1.84) indicating high liquidity but unstable price discovery.

3. Altcoin Weakness (Mixed Impact)

Overview: Bitcoin dominance rose to 59.94% (up 1.35% in 24h), while the Altcoin Season Index fell to 36 (-41% in 30 days). RDNT’s 24h underperformance (-37% vs. ETH -7%) reflects sector-wide de-risking.

What this means: Investors are rotating out of mid-cap DeFi tokens like RDNT amid macroeconomic uncertainty (global bond yields surging) and regulatory headwinds. RDNT’s 78.64% yearly drop exacerbates its sensitivity to sentiment shifts.

Conclusion

RDNT’s plunge stems from exploit-related fears, technical breakdowns, and a hostile climate for altcoins. While oversold conditions could invite volatility-driven bounces, sustained recovery likely requires progress on security overhauls and broader crypto market stabilization.

Key watch: Can RDNT hold the $0.0145 pivot, or will the September 28 exploit news trigger a retest of the $0.00537 yearly low?

Deep Dive

1. Technical Momentum (Bullish Impact)

Overview: RDNT’s price broke above its 7-day SMA ($0.0213) and 30-day SMA ($0.0209), with the MACD histogram turning positive (+0.000284) for the first time in weeks. The 7-day RSI (69.18) nears overbought territory but remains below extreme levels.

What this means: Traders often interpret breaks above short-term moving averages as bullish signals, especially when paired with rising volume (24h turnover ratio: 0.991). The MACD crossover suggests accelerating upward momentum, though the 200-day EMA ($0.0268) looms as resistance.

What to watch: Sustained closes above $0.0235 could target the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement at $0.0229.

2. Reduced Exploit-Related Selling (Mixed Impact)

Overview: The Radiant Capital hacker, who stole $53M in October 2024, has slowed ETH-to-DAI conversions after offloading ~$25M worth of ETH between August-September 2025.

What this means: While $42M in stolen assets remains unaccounted for (Lookonchain), the pause in large sales removes a persistent overhang. However, the hacker’s remaining 12,326 ETH ($58.6M) poses latent risk if dumped.

3. Remediation Progress (Bullish Impact)

Overview: Radiant’s DAO approved a remediation plan in August 2025, with initial payouts to hack victims scheduled for late Q3/Q4 2025 (now imminent). Security upgrades include multi-sig enhancements and a Guardian Fund reserve.

What this means: Compensation execution could restore confidence in the protocol’s stability. The Community Council’s governance shift (Radiant Capital) addresses past centralization concerns, a critical DeFi risk factor.

Conclusion

RDNT’s gains reflect technical tailwinds and cautious optimism about its post-hack recovery, though macro headwinds (total crypto market -1.72%) and residual exploit risks cap upside. Key watch: Whether the price holds above $0.0230 post-RSI cooling, and confirmation of remediation payouts by October 15.